Can March Madness History Predict the Final Four?

The ghosts of tournament past can teach us about the future

Maybe your bracket is busted or you’re joining a Second Chance bracket. Perhaps you’re narrowing down your Survivor pool options or heading off to a weekend in Vegas. Heck, maybe you just want to impress your friends and family with some sweet hoops knowledge. Whatever the reason, you’ve come to the right place.

History just predicted the early exits by Villanova and Duke and the Cinderella runs for Xavier and Rhode Island. School history, past coach performance, conference history, and preseason expectations can often tell us just as much about these upcoming games as the teams themselves. So what can we learn about the Sweet Sixteen and beyond?

EAST REGIONAL

(8) Wisconsin vs (4) Florida

You might think an 8 or 9 seed that shocks a 1 seed has had their fun and goes home shortly after, but history says otherwise. Actually 8 and 9 seeds are 10–7 in the Sweet Sixteen including 8–7 against 4 and 5 seeds. That’s basically a coin flip against a much better team, and it makes sense — an 8 or 9 seed is usually a big conference team that’s been up and down all season, but they’re obviously peaking at the right time.

In fact, six of the seventeen 8 and 9 seeds that made the Sweet Sixteen advanced all the way to the Final Four: 2014 Kentucky, 2013 Wichita State, 2011 Butler, 2000 North Carolina, 1985 Villanova, and hey, 2000 Wisconsin! The Big Ten is 7–4 in the Sweet Sixteen as a 6 seed or lower. Maybe that tough physical style of play is getting them ready for March after all.

What about Florida? They were clearly the second best team in the SEC this year behind Kentucky, and they dismantled a good Virginia team. It turns out there’s a pretty interesting trend for the best non-Kentucky team in the SEC since John Calipari arrived:

• 2016: 3 Texas A&M makes Sweet Sixteen, loses to 2 Oklahoma by 14
• 2015: 5 Arkansas wins once, loses to 4 North Carolina by 9
• 2014: 1 Florida makes Final Four, loses to 7 Connecticut by 10
• 2013: 3 Florida makes Elite Eight, loses to 4 Michigan by 20
• 2012: 5 Vanderbilt wins once, loses to 4 Wisconsin by 3
• 2011: 2 Florida makes Elite Eight, loses to 8 Butler by 3
• 2010: 4 Vanderbilt upset in first round by 13 Murray State by 1

In seven years with Calipari, the best non-Kentucky SEC team advanced exactly as far as expected and then lost, often pretty handily. Only one team in seven years made it further than seed expectation, and that was because 2013 Florida got to play 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast in the Elite Eight. History tells us the top non-Kentucky SEC team goes as far as their seed expects and then loses, often to a middling seed.

Wisconsin was a preseason top 10 team that seems to be playing like it the last few weeks behind seniors seniors Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig, who have both been to two Final Fours. Don’t rule out a third.

(3) Baylor vs (7) South Carolina

Both teams are coming to uncharted territory pretty quickly here. Baylor is 2–1 in the Sweet Sixteen but has never made the Final Four. South Carolina had never even won a single game in the modern tournament before last week and lost in three straight Sweet Sixteens when they last won games back in 1971–73. Either school will be playing for history Sunday against a school much more accustomed to Final Four success.

It might make sense to be a bit wary of South Carolina after their biggest win in school history. They’ll be strutting all over campus this week, maybe too busy to get ready for Baylor. But history doesn’t necessarily support that. There are plenty of teams that shocked their way to the Sweet Sixteen before an ignominious out — St. Mary’s, Northern Iowa, BYU, La Salle, Cornell, Florida Gulf Coast — but others like Davidson, VCU, and George Mason continued to win even after a week basking in campus glory.

The seeding isn’t a huge help here either. Historically, 3 seeds are just 7–5 against 7 seeds, one loss away from a coin flip. We have a lot more examples of a 3/6 game since that’s a common second round occurrence. Those 3 seeds are 38–28, favored but still only 58% likely to win.

Two key matchups should determine this game — turnovers and rebounds. Baylor is the second best offensive rebounding team in the country and the Gamecocks allow a ton of second chances. But the Bears also turn the ball over a ton, and South Carolina is among the top five teams in the country forcing turnovers. Whoever limits their deficiency best should win.

EAST CONCLUSIONS

This is pretty obviously the most wide-open region with but 1 Villanova and 2 Duke already out and two games that are close to coin flips. Baylor looks like a slight favorite but might be an underdog to coaching and experience in the Elite Eight. Does Wisconsin count as a Cinderella story if they make their third Final Four in four years?

WEST REGIONAL

(1) Gonzaga vs (4) West Virginia

All four 4 seeds made the Sweet Sixteen for just the second time in the modern tournament era. The other time they did it was 2014, and it mirrored this tournament with games against an 8 seed and three 1s. Those 2014 teams went just 1–3 in the Sweet Sixteen with a win over 1 Virginia. As a group, 1 seeds are a dominant 66–22 against 4 and 5 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen, winning an impressive 75% of the time and each of the last seven such games.

Gonzaga of course is no normal 1 seed, coming from a mid major conference. There’s not a lot of March history to go on here, but what little we have looks encouraging enough:

• 2008: 1 Memphis defeats 5 Michigan State by 18
• 2004: 1 St. Joseph’s defeats 4 Wake Forest by 4
• 1991: 1 UNLV defeats Utah by 17

Mark Few’s history is less encouraging, at least on the surface. His Gonzaga teams are just 2–5 in the Sweet Sixteen and 0–2 in the Elite Eight. But he’s never had a team this good here before. Only one of those seven games saw Gonzaga as a favorite, and they won that one. Even the iconic Adam Morrison team was just a 3 seed and lost to 2 UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen. This Bulldogs team will be a favorite every game until a possible title game.

So be careful before you just give the coaching experience edge to West Virginia and Bob Huggins. Huggins is 4–3 in the Sweet Sixteen and 2–2 in the Elite Eight, but he’s only 1–4 as an underdog in those games and that win was as a one-seed underdog. This would be Huggy Bear’s biggest upset win ever.

Press Virginia is all about pushing two big advantages, among the top five in the nation in both offensive rebounds and turnovers forced. Gonzaga is pretty good on the glass, and Nigel Williams-Goss should handle the press with ease. West Virginia doesn’t actually shoot the ball well when it can’t get easy shots off turnovers or offensive rebounds, and when they do lose in March, it’s often ugly. Their last five losses have come by an average of 21 points when the easy buckets dry up and they just can’t score. Don’t be shocked if this game trends that direction.

(11) Xavier vs (2) Arizona

If you’re hoping for Xavier to stick around as the only remaining double digit seed in the tournament, history is not on your side. In fourteen games, 11 seeds are just 1–13 against 2s. The only previous win was by 11 LSU in 1986 in the second year of the modern tournament, before they had figured out seeding. That record is not entirely fair, though. The 11 seeds are losing but not always by much — that includes nail-biter losses by 1, 1, 2, 2, and 3 points.

If Xavier does manage to win this game, 11 seeds are an impressive 3–3 in the Elite Eight — even more impressive since all six games came against 1 seeds. Xavier’s 1–3–1 defense is always difficult to prepare for on short notice. The Musketeers have won six of eight games with one day’s prep over the past decade. You know Gonzaga is already preparing for Arizona in advance. If it’s Xavier instead, they may be a bit underprepared and/or let their guard down.

Still, Arizona is a big favorite here and has the best chance of any team in the field at making the Final Four, just because they’re closest to already being in the Elite Eight. But did you know that no PAC-12 team has made the Final Four since 2008? That’s 32 Final Four berths without a single PAC-12 team. That includes eight Big Ten berths and seven from the Big East. It includes Final Four teams by 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11 seeds. It even includes two Final Fours by Butler. But not a single PAC-12 team. The last time a PAC-12 team made the Final Four, they played against freshman Derrick Rose and Memphis head coach John Calipari. That’s how long it’s been.

And then there’s that Sean Miller history: 0–4 in the Elite Eight with enough heartbreak for several careers. The pressure is on now more than ever. Miller has never had a clearer path; he’d be playing Saturday with a chance to get to a de facto home Final Four in Glendale as a favorite against a watered down East team. Will the pressure get to Miller again?

WEST CONCLUSIONS

There may be one close game Thursday and one blowout, but not the way you think. Gonzaga seems to have the perfect antidote to Press Virginia, while Sean Miller may have his hands full against his old team Xavier. His familiarity with their style and coach Chris Mack should be enough, and history is on Arizona’s side. That Gonzaga — Arizona showdown is coming, and the winner will be a big favorite to get to the title game. Will it be Mark Few or Sean Miller finally getting that two-ton monkey off his back?

MIDWEST REGIONAL

(1) Kansas vs (4) Purdue

This is one of three 1/4 matchups in the Sweet Sixteen, so a lot of the trends above hold true. Historical 1 seeds are dominant in the Sweet Sixteen. They’re 34–15 against 4 seeds in particular, a nice 69% win rate.

Kansas is a clear favorite, though this is a game of mismatches. Purdue’s Caleb Swanigan is as dominant a big man as anyone in the country and could give the Jayhawks’ small lineup fits, but the Boilermarkers don’t have anyone to keep up with all of Kansas’s outstanding guards and wings. Recent history favors guard play, especially since Swanigan has a tendency to disappear from games and often gets into foul trouble. He had at least three fouls 21 times this year including 79% of his conference games. If he gets taken out of the game early, Kansas could roll.

Purdue’s only real upset this century was a 10/7 upset. They’ve only ever made two Elite Eights and have never made a Final Four or knocked off a top-2 seed. This would be the biggest win in Boilermarker history.

Kansas has to be pleased that Louisville and Iowa State are out of their path. They can basically win the Big Ten tournament and make the Final Four if Oregon gets upset. But don’t pencil the Jayhawks into your Final Four just yet. Bill Self is 27–5 with a week to prepare in tournament history but just 15–12 in even rounds. That includes an absolutely miserable 2–6 in the Elite Eight, just 1–6 as a favorite, and that lone win was by a single point over Steph Curry’s 10 seed Davidson.

Kansas is probably going to make the Elite Eight yet again. But boy do they have a history of blowing it once they get there.

(3) Oregon vs (7) Michigan

This 3/7 seed matchup was already discussed in the Baylor / South Carolina matchup — the 3 seed is a favorite here but it’s not far from a coin flip.

Oregon is 3–1 in the Sweet Sixteen, and their one loss was as a 12 seed. They’re 0–3 in the Elite Eight, though, and none of their Final Four chances have been particularly close. The Ducks are now 13–2 in school history as a favorite. They’ll be rooting hard for Purdue.

Michigan may be an underdog, but that hasn’t exactly slowed them down the last two weeks. The last two times a 7 seed beat a 3, they went on to make the Final Four, though a 7 seed has never beaten a 1. Like Xavier, Michigan also operates out of a 1–3–1 base defense that makes it a nightmare to prepare for on short notice. The Big Ten is a ridiculous 9–5 in the Elite Eight as an underdog. These plane-crash-surviving Wolverines are hitting a ton of shots and have more than a faint whiff of 2014 Connecticut. That team went from the bubble watch in early March to winning its conference tournament and just never stopped winning. Could Derrick Walton be Michigan’s Shabazz Napier?

MIDWEST CONCLUSIONS

It’s going to take a herculean effort by Caleb Swanigan to pull off the upset, but Purdue tends to keep things close and Kansas plays down to its competition, so you never know. Oregon will need to up its defensive intensity and close out on Michigan’s shooters. That game is a true toss-up, but history says the winner has a really good shot against a favored Kansas team in the Elite Eight. Could the Michigan run extend all the way to Phoenix?

SOUTH REGIONAL

(1) North Carolina vs (4) Butler

You probably don’t need an article to tell you Butler has a pretty good history as an underdog, making the Final Four in back-to-back years as a 5 seed and then as an 8 seed. Both runs included wins against a prohibitive favorite 1 seed, and they’ve taken three other 1s down to the wire in single digit losses. And this is Butler’s highest seed ever.

But 1-seed North Carolina is one of the best bets in March. Roy Williams’s 1-seed UNC has never lost to worse than a 2 seed in six tournament appearances, and they average better than a Final Four berth. North Carolina is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, grabbing just under 50% of their misses, and they should punish Butler on the glass.

Roy Williams is 12–5 in the Sweet Sixteen including 11–2 as the favorite and 6–0 as the 1 seed. That should give Tar Heels fans some peace of mind against a feisty underdog — for at least one game. Williams is 44–8 with a week to prepare for a tournament opponent but just 24–15 with one day. Williams lost his only tournament game against John Calipari, and he’s 0–3 against Kansas since leaving the Jayhawks behind. Yikes.

(3) UCLA vs (2) Kentucky

This is our only 2 vs 3 seed matchup. You’d think these games are basically coin flips, but that’s an incorrect assumption. Historically, 2 seeds win this matchup in the Sweet Sixteen almost two-thirds of the time at 25–14. In fact six of the last seven wins were by by double digits.

There’s just a little tournament history in play here. UCLA and Kentucky have combined to win 19 national championships. They rank first and second all time with 11 and 8 titles respectively; no other team has won more than 5. UCLA won an absurd 10 titles in a 12-year window between 1964 and 1975. The tournament wasn’t as deep then but that’s still one of the greatest dynasties in sports history. Kentucky and UCLA have met twice in tournament history. The Bruins beat UK in the 1975 title game, while the Wildcats won the more recent meeting in the 1998 Sweet Sixteen.

(Some more history, if you’re wondering for later on: UCLA and UNC split two prior tournament meetings, with the Bruins winning the one that mattered in the 1968 title game. Kentucky won two of three meetings against Carolina, all in the Elite Eight like this matchup would be.)

You know who wasn’t part of any of that dominant UCLA history? Bruins head coach Steve Alford, that’s who. Alford was quite a player for Indiana in the ‘80s, but he hasn’t been quite as successful as a coach. Alford is 0–3 in the Sweet Sixteen. He’s never won a tournament game after the opening weekend and his teams have never beaten a top-3 seed. In fact UCLA hasn’t beaten better than a 6 seed in nine years. By contrast, John Calipari is 5–0 in the Sweet Sixteen at Kentucky and 10–2 in his career. He’s also 4–1 with Kentucky in the Elite Eight. Somehow you forgot that Kentucky made the Final Four in four straight tournament appearances before last year.

The Bruins came to Lexington and knocked off the nation’s #1 team in a wild 97–92 victory in December, ending Kentucky’s 42-game home win streak. Can UCLA pull off a second upset with everything on the line?

SOUTH CONCLUSIONS

This is the only region that saw all four top seeds advance, so expect some great basketball from some of the NCAA’s top blue bloods. UCLA doesn’t play much defense, doesn’t rebound well, doesn’t force turnovers, and doesn’t score many freebies at the line. That’s not a formula to knock off Kentucky and North Carolina in a three-day window. UNC’s size should dictate its matchup with Butler, while history and coaching favor Kentucky on the other side of the bracket. Sunday’s likely UNC/UK finale could be the game of the tournament. The winner will be the Final Four favorite.

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