Can Joe Biden Cross the Finish Line?

Free AI web copilot to create summaries, insights and extended knowledge, download it at here

2544

Abstract

etitive. There was even a poll recently that had <a href="https://talkbusiness.net/2020/06/poll-independents-dissatisfied-with-trump-cotton-biden-competitive-in-arkansas/">Trump only leading by two in Arkansas</a>!The President’s responses to the Covid-19 outbreak and national protests over the police killing of George Floyd has largely tanked him politically. Americans see through his bullshit now and they’re tired of it. You can’t spin your way out of a pandemic. And the climate in the country is much different from 2016 regarding Black Lives Matter, as <a href="https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/06/12/amid-protests-majorities-across-racial-and-ethnic-groups-express-support-for-the-black-lives-matter-movement/">support has grown across the country</a>. Colin Kaepernick is now looked at as a hero and corporate America is bending over backward to convey that they care about racial injustice.Meanwhile, Joe Biden has been rather quiet. He has put out tweets here and there and done the occasional interview, but largely he is simply passing the time until November, hoping to avoid any major gaffes. He is letting Trump beat himself and right now, it’s working. The pandemic has given Biden a perfect excuse for his lack of campaigning. He maintained a light schedule during the Democratic primary and now he can replicate that in the general election, without criticism. The one time he tried to step out of his comfort zone, he delivered the now infamous “you ain’t black” line on the Breakfast Club. That moment, however, had little effect on his numbers, with all of the other problems the country is facing.It’s difficult to find a major weakness in Biden’s electability at this point. Compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016, Biden has pretty good favorability. People don’t love him, but they don’t hate him either. Voters who disliked both Clinton and Trump mostly broke for Trump, especially in critical swing states. This time around, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/497359-polls-show-biden-has-edge-with-voters-who-dont-like-their-choices?amp&__twitter_impression=true">Biden leads Trump by huge margins among these voters.</a> Trump’s polling numbers among all age groups over 45 have gotten worse and Biden is winning voters over the age of 65, unheard of for a Democrat. They trust Joe though. He brings them a sense of security that has gone completely out the window under Trump.We still have four months until the election but this

Options

race is Joe Biden’s to lose. An incumbent hasn’t been this weak since George H.W. Bush in 1992 when he lost to Bill Clinton. There are a few hurdles Biden must cross before actually winning in November. He must avoid terrible debate performances, like many of his in the primary. He did perform well in the one-on-one debate with Bernie Sanders, however. Next, Biden has to avoid any further gaffes that give Trump ammunition. Up until this point, the Trump campaign has struggled to pin Biden down on anything. Ukraine and Obamagate were a bust, and sexism isn’t going to help like it did in 2016.Trump could pursue certain policy choices that could help his electoral chances, like actually taking Covid-19 seriously and pushing for further stimulus checks. Biden has also allowed Trump the opportunity to outflank him on the left in health care. Trump could follow his playbook from the 2016 primary and endorse, albeit vaguely, universal health care. Biden’s solution of expanding COBRA to millions of Americans losing their health insurance is a horrendous approach. It’s unlikely Trump takes true advantage of this but the opening is there. One last event that could shift the race dramatically is a vaccine for Covid-19. If one is found before Election day, Trump will take credit and some voters may give him another chance to rebuild the economy, the one area he still leads Biden in polls.So, will Joe Biden be able to close the deal? If I had to bet right now, I’d say yes. Understandably, we are still frightened over 2016 but the data shows a much different race this time around. Trump has never led the national polling average and he is historically unpopular. Biden’s polling average is at least three points higher than Clinton’s 2016 average and he is consistently cracking 50% now in polls. Biden is also doing much better among white and older voters, which is crucial in swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.The United States is undergoing a massive shift in politics. People across the country are fighting for racial justice and our world has been turned upside down from the pandemic. All that being said, it looks like the voters are going to elect a man who has campaigned on returning to normal. That’s not important to them, though. Joe Biden is simply a placeholder. 2020 is a referendum on President Trump and he is failing in every way. Barring another massive event that hurts Biden politically, Trump is finished.</article></body>

As the Trump Presidency falls apart, Biden has become the clear favorite

It is hard to forget the feelings from November 8, 2016, when Donald Trump did the unimaginable, in defeating Hillary Clinton to win the Presidency. Before the election, Clinton was declared a large favorite, with some models giving her as much as a 98 percent chance of winning. On Election night, Donald Trump managed to dismantle the “blue wall” by winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by the slimmest of margins.

This time around, Trump faces former Vice President Joe Biden. Although he holds a similar worldview and politics as Hillary Clinton, Biden finds himself in a great position heading into the home stretch of this campaign. Some of it is pure luck, while he also has advantages of his own.

Joe Biden has opened up his largest polling lead on Trump since the start of the primary season. FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Politics have his national lead at ten points and he leads in almost every swing state. Trump’s favorability numbers are at their lowest since the government shutdown in early 2019.

Here are the polling averages for various swing states:

Arizona: Biden +4.9

Florida: Biden +7.0

Georgia: Biden +1.7

Iowa: Tied

Michigan: Biden +9.6

North Carolina: Biden +2.8

Ohio: Biden +2.6

Pennsylvania: Biden +8.1

Texas: Trump +0.5

Wisconsin +8.4

In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost all of the above states. Some of these states, like Georgia and Texas shouldn’t be a battleground but Trump’s weakness has caused them to become competitive. There was even a poll recently that had Trump only leading by two in Arkansas!

The President’s responses to the Covid-19 outbreak and national protests over the police killing of George Floyd has largely tanked him politically. Americans see through his bullshit now and they’re tired of it. You can’t spin your way out of a pandemic. And the climate in the country is much different from 2016 regarding Black Lives Matter, as support has grown across the country. Colin Kaepernick is now looked at as a hero and corporate America is bending over backward to convey that they care about racial injustice.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden has been rather quiet. He has put out tweets here and there and done the occasional interview, but largely he is simply passing the time until November, hoping to avoid any major gaffes. He is letting Trump beat himself and right now, it’s working. The pandemic has given Biden a perfect excuse for his lack of campaigning. He maintained a light schedule during the Democratic primary and now he can replicate that in the general election, without criticism. The one time he tried to step out of his comfort zone, he delivered the now infamous “you ain’t black” line on the Breakfast Club. That moment, however, had little effect on his numbers, with all of the other problems the country is facing.

It’s difficult to find a major weakness in Biden’s electability at this point. Compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016, Biden has pretty good favorability. People don’t love him, but they don’t hate him either. Voters who disliked both Clinton and Trump mostly broke for Trump, especially in critical swing states. This time around, Biden leads Trump by huge margins among these voters. Trump’s polling numbers among all age groups over 45 have gotten worse and Biden is winning voters over the age of 65, unheard of for a Democrat. They trust Joe though. He brings them a sense of security that has gone completely out the window under Trump.

We still have four months until the election but this race is Joe Biden’s to lose. An incumbent hasn’t been this weak since George H.W. Bush in 1992 when he lost to Bill Clinton. There are a few hurdles Biden must cross before actually winning in November. He must avoid terrible debate performances, like many of his in the primary. He did perform well in the one-on-one debate with Bernie Sanders, however. Next, Biden has to avoid any further gaffes that give Trump ammunition. Up until this point, the Trump campaign has struggled to pin Biden down on anything. Ukraine and Obamagate were a bust, and sexism isn’t going to help like it did in 2016.

Trump could pursue certain policy choices that could help his electoral chances, like actually taking Covid-19 seriously and pushing for further stimulus checks. Biden has also allowed Trump the opportunity to outflank him on the left in health care. Trump could follow his playbook from the 2016 primary and endorse, albeit vaguely, universal health care. Biden’s solution of expanding COBRA to millions of Americans losing their health insurance is a horrendous approach. It’s unlikely Trump takes true advantage of this but the opening is there. One last event that could shift the race dramatically is a vaccine for Covid-19. If one is found before Election day, Trump will take credit and some voters may give him another chance to rebuild the economy, the one area he still leads Biden in polls.

So, will Joe Biden be able to close the deal? If I had to bet right now, I’d say yes. Understandably, we are still frightened over 2016 but the data shows a much different race this time around. Trump has never led the national polling average and he is historically unpopular. Biden’s polling average is at least three points higher than Clinton’s 2016 average and he is consistently cracking 50% now in polls. Biden is also doing much better among white and older voters, which is crucial in swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The United States is undergoing a massive shift in politics. People across the country are fighting for racial justice and our world has been turned upside down from the pandemic. All that being said, it looks like the voters are going to elect a man who has campaigned on returning to normal. That’s not important to them, though. Joe Biden is simply a placeholder. 2020 is a referendum on President Trump and he is failing in every way. Barring another massive event that hurts Biden politically, Trump is finished.