Breaking Free
A different path to the future
The problems we face as a planetary culture are historically unique. They also appear unsolvable to those attempting to visualize solutions.
To summarize this dilemma, we have planetary problems of our own creation as a species but no traditional means of solving such problems. Historically, we have only new processes for recognizing such problems in international alliances.
Our sociopolitical systems of regional administration are entirely inadequate for solving their internal structural problems, let alone new and unique planetary problems. In many instances, they are little better than feudalism, prone to aging dictators and military oppression.
The large regional nation-states that hold hegemony over us are imperial in structure, with vast bureaucracies dedicated to enriching a ruling elite. General welfare is reverting to a level that prevents revolution as the elite hoards assets.
Small nation-states in areas of economic stability work effectively at citizen welfare, but this is more a matter of social democratic tradition that does not scale well or at all.
These small states are prone to disruption by natural disasters and migrations resulting from those disasters. Refugees are already a problem and have triggered reactionary political movements, worsening an already bad situation that is just beginning with no end in sight.
For the first time in human history, our combined future offers no hope for improved planetary well-being as we face drastic decline and hardship.
The majority of our population lives precariously. For the last two centuries, the rise of science and technology brought many improvements at the cost of planetary overshoot. A vast future debt was created that we now must pay.
Now, anxiety driven by fear and anger leaves people open to authoritarian manipulation with unrealistic promises and redirection of anger at others as scapegoats.
If these tendencies are not managed effectively, the administration will fail, and the culture will teeter on the edge of chaos. Total collapse may result if climate disasters cause loss of resources, food, and communication breakdown.
The historical prevalence of drought and famine has always made some regions prone to chaos with no or only sporadic administrative structure. As mentioned above, these regions grow as the capitalist planetary debt comes due. They are already triggering refugee explosions, and we do not know how bad this will get or how it can be brought to an end.
Increased refugee movements are traditionally seen as a political choice of individuals and families rather than the result of climate changes triggering an administrative collapse. The refugee population is seen as a problem because of their choice and a threat to more stable regions.
Administrative instability leads to authoritarian control by the ruling elite, and usually, a tiny minority hoards most of the regional resources. Wherever natural assets are scarce or artificially unbalanced, refugee migrations will be rejected as they can trigger violent change.
In wealthy states already in authoritarian reaction, militarized police can maintain control but only with increasing violence. The power of contemporary military hardware and media monitoring systems is formidable to overthrow. The result is more likely to be genocide of select portions of the populations in the region than revolutionary change for expanded rights and well-being as in the past.
However, as our concept of revolutionary change has no workable solution for a planetary climate disaster, we come full circle to the failure of leadership among the educated population. We understand that planetary management and redistribution of shrinking assets are the only alternatives and that our current economic system cannot achieve resource balance.
We also understand that a plurality or even majority will reject asset redistribution. Our human preference is the declaration of allegiance to a military leader with a program of ethnocentric oppression of another group or regional minority justified by historical wrongs.
National ethnic, cultural, or tribal history provides a wealth of creative material for recovering traditional lands or wealth. Xenophobia works for most people, and no detailed knowledge of history and previous conquests is required.
This is the tragedy of history, as there have always been others whose assets can be taken. No one goes to battle to have less than they had before. Altruism and compassion die sudden deaths in this environment.
We are seeing this now in Gaza, with Israel committed to genocide to lock down all Palestinian land in one of the planet’s oldest and longest-populated regions. This is the case in Ukraine with Russia after rich agricultural lands and a defensive barrier against the American Imperial NATO alliance.
These regional conflicts exacerbated by the early stages of the climate disaster are still seen as traditional historical-political conflicts. These are now climate conflicts with legacy histories. They also spread into each other as there is nowhere to go and no planetary escape valve.
Capitalism was allowed to grow from its European inception four hundred years ago without considering the implications of infinite resource extraction, infinite growth, or a way to stop it from metastasizing into a world-ending disease. It is now a planetary size mistake and is still being denied.
The causes are not new, but the lack of a reachable solution is unique. Population increase and arable land with other natural resources have always been points of conflict and conquest. These areas-central Africa, the Tigris-Euphrates valley, North Africa, Central America now, and Central Asia-are heating up, literally.
Insisting on viewing these conflicts as only regional and political guarantees disaster. They must now be dealt with as a planetary problem. Large sections of our most arable lands are becoming deserts, and parts of the equatorial regions will become uninhabitable.
While agricultural lands move north and south, the transition will take decades and may not meet the levels on which we have come to depend. We have already overfished our oceans, and temperatures are already cutting production.
We are already seeing problems with rice production in India and Southeast Asia and grain production in the Middle East, which started the refugee flood five years ago. These problems are complex and entangled with political and social collapse, leading to growing refugee movements destabilizing their own and adjacent regions.
None of this is being dealt with primarily as a planetary problem. The result is a growing list of regional disasters demanding resources and management. In this case, the most that can be done is to force short-term solutions that require constant management.
If that management fails, as we see, war results. Scorched earth campaigns will increase the risk of apocalypse.
The only attempt to handle this at the correct level is the Chinese Belt and Road project, but that is now recognized as targeted at political and economic manipulation. The Chinese have a much clearer administrative understanding of the climate disaster and its consequences. China’s continental project could be taken as a model for managing our planetary disaster, but nation-state hegemons must block it to protect their dominance.
America is already in a complete knee-jerk reaction with no regard for planetary implications. Greed and control are all that matter in the “us against them” frenzy.
Unfortunately, China is also beginning to fail as a large hegemonic nation-state and is already suffering economic decline. It is adapting rapidly to the reality of new climate disasters. It has a history of pragmatic response, but it appears to be caught in the same authoritarian reaction that is destroying the American Empire.
Conflicting regional hegemonic states are not acceptable in a planetary climate disaster. There needs to be a planetary-level asset and climate administration with efficient local administration focused on representative government and the goal of universal well-being.
Our direction is a narrowing focus on regional authoritarian militarism and the hopeless protection of the old hegemonic nation-states. This is the exact opposite of what is needed to minimize the risk of civilizational collapse.
We need drastically different and new thinking, which is being prevented and suppressed. Can we break free of the death grip of our past?
Originally published at https://rlandok.substack.com.