Bitcoin Price Forecast: July to be a Tough Month, August Could Be Better
A War for Hash Power? | Chart | Supply | Next
The current condition of the cryptocurrency market is fluctuating between very good and very bad. In today’s article, we will discuss what is happening in the crypto market right now and some upcoming events on which we should keep an eye.
FOMC Predict
Tomorrow, the FOMC will give a major update. The US Federal Reserve will announce a new interest rate, which many experts predict that it will be raised by 25 basis points. Last time they did not raise the internet rate and the economic data was favorable, 90% of analysts predicted that this time the US would increase the interest rate by 25 basis points.
Traders have already made positions in the market by predicting a hike in interest rates.
Blocks
Bitcoin has over 800,000 blocks on its blockchain. The blockchain of Bitcoin is vertical, which means that a new block is added by stacking another block on top of the old block. When a new block is added, all of the hash data from the previous block gets automatically transferred to the new block.
Since the first Bitcoin block was mined, the blockchain’s entire data has grown to around 500GB. If you want, you can also store all the transaction data of the Bitcoin blockchain.
Interesting
There are 21 million bitcoins in circulation, out of which 19.43 million bitcoins have already been mined. Now, over 1.5 million BTC are left to be mined and will continue to be mined till the year 2140.
Why should it take more than 100 years to mine more than 1.5 million Bitcoin? The reason is Bitcoin halving which occurs every 4 years and if we calculate with the halving period and mining data then till the year 2140 all the Bitcoin will be mined.
Currently, the hash rate of Bitcoin is at an all-time high because big investment funds are investing money in Bitcoin mining companies and building new mining farms.
Out of 19.43 million bitcoins, 268.7k BTC have been rewarded to miners in the form of fees. If we calculate 268.7k BTC from the current price, then approx 52 billion dollars have been received by the miners as rewards. If anyone has received BTC as a reward, then that person must have withdrawn it, so it clearly means that miners have also withdrawn approx $52 billion in cash till now. This is very shocking for me.
It is possible that in the coming times, there will be a war between nations to mine BTC. This war will not be like our traditional war, but it will be for a ‘Hash’ which is required for Bitcoin mining.
Wallet
Out of 19.43 million bitcoins, 1.45 million BTC have not yet been moved, therefore this 7.5% supply appears to have been lost due to the lack of access. Long-term holders own 14.05 million BTC, accounting for 74% of the total supply.
Chart
Last day, Bitcoin had broken the important support of $29,700. After the 31-day sideways movement, everyone expected a massive breakout, but it didn’t happen. Many long positions were liquidated after reaching 29000 in a matter of minutes. Long trades worth of approx $31 million have been liquidated.
The price of Bitcoin is falling while open interest is increasing, which is a bearish sign. My reason for being bearish is the increment of open interest, until the open interest will not come down, the major upside movement will not come in Bitcoin.
For now, it is very risky to open a long position unless Bitcoin will not hold above $30000.
Buying
According to the Fibonacci retracement, there might be a 50% correction. Major bounces have also been witnessed from the zone around the 50% Fib level in the past two downfalls. This time, the 50% Fib level is around $28000.
Marking the super trend line, the major support can be found around the $27800-$28000 zone.
Volume
When Bitcoin broke the level of $29700, at that time volume was really high so everyone thought it is not a fakeout but a genuine breakout. If the volume was low and Bitcoin had broken the level of $29700, it would be a fakeout but it didn’t happen. In the current scenario, the price needs to rise above $30000 to activate the bullish trend.
It is unfortunate that the month of July will not go well this year. I’m hoping that the month of August will be good.
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Disclaimer
I am not a Financial advisor. I am not affiliated with any of the websites or coins and also this is not financial and Investment advice. This article is meant only for educational purposes. I am just sharing my thoughts and analysis based on my many years of experience.