Biden Wins!

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Abstract

dle the Covid-45 pandemic. A quarter of a million Americans are dead, a thousand more die every day, and he claims he has beaten it.</li><li>Americans are voting in record numbers. Why? They don’t do that to stand up behind someone who has done a great job. They do it to make sure a failure is booted out and stays booted.</li></ol>Looking at the polls, Don Trump has something like a ten per cent chance. And that’s factoring in the bias of the Electoral College. Last time around, he was the underdog, but the same sites gave him a 29% chance, which is three times as big.In 2016, he was running against Hillary Clinton, who wasn’t well-liked. There were a lot more undecided voters. And it turned out that they were going to give the unknown a chance.In fact, it often happens that the mere fact that the media and the pundits think an election is cut and dried is enough that people get out and vote for the underdog, just to

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demonstrate that they can’t be taken for granted.In Australia just last year, Labor’s Bill Shorten was seen as the likely winner of the federal election, so much that the bookmakers paid out on him ahead of the election, and publicised their decision as an example of how well they treated their clients.Expensive mistake. The incumbent Scott Morrison got up to win. And now he has led Australia through two crises — the “Black Summer” bushfires, and the current pandemic — and he has an approval rating up around 70%. He may well be in for decades to come!<h2 id="5bec">TL;DR</h2>Don Trump won a surprise victory in 2016. It has been a disaster. My educated guess is that the American voters are going to correct the mistake.And most likely flip the Senate over as well, giving the new president a mandate to correct the problems of the Trump years.Britni</article></body>

Here’s why

Here in Australia, if a politician wins an unexpected victory, the voters generally fix the mistake next time around.

Unless the politician has done a remarkable job. Usually, they don’t; they think, hell if I can win this one when nobody thought I could, I’m bullet-proof.

Americans aren’t stupid. Apart from those who think Don Trump has done a good job.

He hasn’t. Quite apart from the chaos and the incompetence and the corruption and the ignorance and the lying and the total lack of anything resembling grace, he has failed to handle the Covid-45 pandemic. A quarter of a million Americans are dead, a thousand more die every day, and he claims he has beaten it.

Americans are voting in record numbers. Why? They don’t do that to stand up behind someone who has done a great job. They do it to make sure a failure is booted out and stays booted.

Looking at the polls, Don Trump has something like a ten per cent chance. And that’s factoring in the bias of the Electoral College. Last time around, he was the underdog, but the same sites gave him a 29% chance, which is three times as big.

In 2016, he was running against Hillary Clinton, who wasn’t well-liked. There were a lot more undecided voters. And it turned out that they were going to give the unknown a chance.

In fact, it often happens that the mere fact that the media and the pundits think an election is cut and dried is enough that people get out and vote for the underdog, just to demonstrate that they can’t be taken for granted.

In Australia just last year, Labor’s Bill Shorten was seen as the likely winner of the federal election, so much that the bookmakers paid out on him ahead of the election, and publicised their decision as an example of how well they treated their clients.

Expensive mistake. The incumbent Scott Morrison got up to win. And now he has led Australia through two crises — the “Black Summer” bushfires, and the current pandemic — and he has an approval rating up around 70%. He may well be in for decades to come!