“AUKUS in 2024” — written by George Friedman

I am a loyal follower of Geopolitical Futures and its diverse team of writers, analysts and forecasters.

George Friedman is founder of Geopolitical Futures and author of many books on geopolitics. This latest writing by Friedman about the traditional trilateral security partnership of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States is insightful and a little controversial. Have a look at it here.

Now, here are my thoughts about the article.

“The trilateral security partnership comprising the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia — known simply as AUKUS — is among the most interesting alliances in recent memory, and it has the potential to be among the most consequential in the world in 2024.”

I would not generally include a very basic quote like this one, but I have to because Friedman wrote the United States before Australia and the United Kingdom. When looking at the acronym, AUKUS, it is clear that it goes in alphabetical order: Australia, United Kingdom, United States. So why did Friedman put America first? My pun intends to point out that while the United States is arguably the most powerful security provider in the world, it is also important to know that the United States is the country leading the Indo-Pacific strategy. This strategy is going to change the concepts around the defense and security framework of the maritime domain forever.

“AUKUS has a strategic purpose, of course. Originally billed as a mechanism to help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines, it will eventually involve enhanced intelligence sharing, indigenous military-industrial capabilities, tighter security operations and the joint development of new weapons. But in no uncertain terms, its objective is to contain China’s navy and prevent it from dominating any part of the Pacific.”

And here is where we pick back up with the Indo-Pacific strategy. The strategy unequivocally seeks to form a networking of alliances throughout the maritime domain of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, in order to deter China’s aggressive behaviors in the South China Sea and beyond. It will see Australia play a more important role in military cooperation with the US and UK. For instance, Australia has already become a significant area for maintenance, repair, overhaul and upgrade (MRO&U) capabilities that serve multi-national military arrangements, such as the Quad, in the Asia-Pacific region. This MRO&U capability also serves one of the biggest military deterrents to China’s military, since some of the most advanced naval and aircraft systems will be stopping by there frequently.

“In some ways, AUKUS is the natural outcome of global culture and national interests. The acquisition of nuclear submarines and aircraft simply represents that truth. The economic reality of AUKUS will begin to be felt more heavily as China’s economy remains unstable and as it becomes a more sophisticated alliance, incorporating all dimensions of power into its mission.”

Again, it’s all about China. The China Rise theory has essentially transformed into a China Threat theory from most of the Western academia concepts of contemporary International Relations. How did we get here in the Western World? Well, probably whenever China started barking orders and performing military actions and threats in the South China Sea. Taiwan has always been a political concern for China’s relations with the world, but the aggressive behaviors by Chinese military forces in the South China Sea have crossed a red line for business interests in Asia-Pacific. This has a lot do with the economic growth coming from Southeast Asian countries, as the US, UK and Australia are investing more funds into the growing technology and consumer base there.

Read the full story: “AUKUS in 2024”.