Are We on the Brink of a World War?
I listened to a Twitter Space where Elon Musk warned that World War 3 is coming. Here is what I have to say
Gaza, Hamas, and Israel have been on the news lately. The conflict between Hamas and Israel is the newest addition to the list of conflicts around the world. Recently, it seems like the flames of conflict have been fanned across the world, stirring up troubles and putting the whole world on edge.
On 24 February 2022, Russia launched the first series of attacks that would herald the official invasion of Ukraine. At first, the world went haywire. What on earth is going on? How could this happen? Has the world as we know it ceased to exist? These were some of the questions on the lips of everybody who listens to the news and has even a minute understating of global politics. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shook the very foundation of our post-Cold War assumptions about the world’s security architecture. In one fell swoop, President Vladimir Putin shocked the West and put everybody on their feet. The West had to come together in a show of unity, forming a Western alliance, the kind that has not been since the days of World War II.
Fast-forward to October 7th, 2023, Hamas carried out a deadly attack on Israeli soil. Israel was supposed to be the state with one of the strongest militaries in the world. Their surveillance and anti-terrorist measures were supposed to be top-notch, and Israeli citizens had come to trust the Israeli security architecture with their lives, to keep Israel safe and peaceful. Sure, there were the occasional air-raid sirens and all that, but nothing more dramatic. To many Israelis the sirens had become a normal part of life; their peace and security were guaranteed and the rest of the world was ok. Israel had signed the Abraham Accords, and the Middle East was ready to normalize relations with Israel, pushing the Palestinian question to the background. But none of that would be, as Hama came bursting the bubble with stealth and cruelty.
Just 2 years ago, the world looked different; more peaceful and less worried. Russia and China were disgruntled players who felt that the US wasn’t treating them with as much respect as they deserved, North Korea was also demanding to be seen as an equal and to be welcomed to the table. The US- had finally pulled out of Afghanistan, ending decades of erratic US Middle-East policy, that arguably made the world feel less safe than it used to be. The US pulling out of Afghanistan also gave the mental impression that the world was returning to ‘normal’, and the war on terror was winding down. After all, Osama Bin Laden was dead and ISIS had been defeated. The only conflicts in the world were quiet and low-risk; the kind that has always lingered, nothing threatening. There was the conflict in Congo, the cyclical leftwing-rightwing democratic struggles in South America, and Saudi Arabia was still on Yemen’s neck. All these are human-rights concerns, yes, but nothing big enough to threaten world peace or make us question our collective security guarantee.
2 years later, the picture is completely different. The alarm bells are loud and are everywhere. With Ukraine in play, the global West rallied around to ensure that Russia must not win the war — the exact words of Olaf Scholz, the chancellor of Germany. The war in Ukraine has drawn Iran, North Korea, and even China closer, so much so that there are talks of military cooperation. China has agreed to a no-limits partnership with Russia — something utterly unthinkable just a few years ago. While the world is still trying to adjust to the new realities, Palestine has brought the Middle East into play, adding salt to Injury. Hamas’ attack on Israel has emboldened Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran, which controls Hezbollah, sees this as an opportunity to kick Israel while it is down — classic Machiavellian style. These recent events have reawakened the consciousness of the Arab states to the Palestinian situation, who have reacted by pushing aside any talks of normalization of relations with Israel, at least into the foreseeable future — arguably what Hamas intended. While all these are happening, the China-Taiwan situation has not gone away. The Taiwanese still report frequent incursions into their airspace by the Chinese military.
The combination of all these crises on multiple fronts has not gone unnoticed. The world is getting tenser, to proportions not seen since the Second World War and the Cold War that followed. To make matters even more flammable, the powerful countries that have the power to make the world a lot safer aren’t talking to each other. The Americans aren’t talking to the Russians, and whenever they do, it’s to give the Russians a lecture — so the Russians stopped listening. The Chinese including President Xi Jinping, have refused to talk to the Americans, despite numerous American attempts. The Americans and North Koreans aren’t ready to listen to each other because they can’t agree to each other’s terms. The Iranians distrust the Americans and American-Iranian diplomatic relations are as frosty as ever. We have ended up with a situation on our hands; a situation where the parties that have talked to each other to avert conflict in the past are no longer willing to do that. Where each party was once scared of ‚mutually assured destruction’ (the military doctrine that has allegedly kept the world safer since the end of World War II), now they have all become immune to the fear and pay lip or no service to the idea of rational deterrence.
Where does this leave us?
The unprecedented chaos has forced the world on a war footing. Now there is talk of a world war, World War III; an idea that would have seemed ridiculous five years back. Are we on the brink of another world war? Students of history or anyone who has lived through the atrocities of war would certainly hope not.
It is unarguable that something has changed. There has been and will continue to be a fundamental shift in the post-war socio-politico-economic consensus. The dynamics of World War II turned the US into a global superpower. When the Cold War ended, the US became the only superpower in the world. She policed the world as she saw fit, built the world in her image (or at least tried to), and with her diplomacy, she defanged countries who refused to play ball and bullied-cum-ntimidated everybody with her military. But enough time has passed since World War II. China has become a major financial and military player, a strategic competitor to the US. Russia has had enough time to lick its wounds and has come back seething with vengeance for the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the decades after World War II, the Middle East, as important as ever, has experienced staggering wealth and discovered the leverage that wealth and abundant energy supplies bring. Countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia have grown confident enough to stick it to the US during times of policy differences. All these new centres of power have produced a tugging effect on the US’s economic and military hegemony. In other words, the US is not the feared and unchallenged Uncle Sam that it once was; it is slowly losing its status as the world’s only superpower. Students of history know that no superpower country or empire has ever given up its place without a war.
Wars have been the unmaking of superpowers, as well as the coming of age for a new superpower that takes the place of the old. If this observation of history is true, then it would suggest that displacing America as a superpower would require a war of global proportions. Some on one end of the political spectrum might even wish for a war.
Despite the hot air hanging over Ukraine, the Middle East, and in fact the world in general, it is safe to bet that a World War isn’t coming, at least not now — feel free to put your money on that. For all its faults, the United States is still the biggest economic, diplomatic, and military machine in the world. The US’s GDP is still at least six times bigger than its biggest ideological rival — China. China has done an impressive job of upgrading its military capabilities over the recent decades but the Chinese military capacity is still outweighed, outgunned, and outnumbered by the US military capacity. That is, the United States has a much more advanced military than China. Although the United States has lost a deal of influence over other countries in the world, its rivals such as Russia, Iran, and North Korea still fear the power of United States sanctions. Yes, these rivals hate it, but to trade on the international market, they still need the US dollar and the Western financial system. There has been talk of countries like China and Saudi Arabia bringing the US to its knees by calling in their US dollar-denominated debts. But trying to cause a run on the US economy is a stupid call because it’ll destroy the world economy with it, leaving everybody worse off — an economic mutually assured destruction.
After World War II, the prevailing international order was restructured. The world was restructured so that all countries are intertwined in complex ways that are difficult to grasp, let alone untangle. Globalization sped this up as well as solidified this new world order. Institutions like the United Nations, the European Union, etc, were created to foster an inter-dependency of the kind that would make a major war between major countries totally unthinkable. At the head of this new order is the United States of America. Like it or not, she still possesses superior charm, economic might and military power, and even her rivals know this. Dethroning the United States from her position would take a long time and massive effort, even if the United States decided to fold her hands and let this happen — which would not be the case. China — the current closest rival to the US — will have to ramp up economic growth to astronomical proportions, hasten the reorganization of its military by dizzying speeds, and rethink its whole ideology on immigration.
One thing is sure; for as long as it takes to do all this while hoping that the US just stays stagnant and watches, we won’t have a world war. Will the world be a heated, tenser, and scarier place in the next few years? Sure. But we would not have a world war — not yet.