Summary

Andrew Yang's warnings about AI's impact on jobs are becoming a reality, with industries like trucking and the creative sector facing displacement, underscoring the potential need for Universal Basic Income (UBI) to support those affected.

Abstract

Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang predicted in 2019 that AI would disrupt American jobs, particularly in the trucking industry, advocating for a UBI of $1,000 per month for all Americans over 18. Despite criticism, studies indicate that UBI recipients tend to spend the money on essentials. With 45% of Americans unable to cover a$ 1,000 emergency and predictions that AI will displace a third of U.S. workers by 2030, UBI could significantly improve living standards. Contrary to expectations, it's the creative industry, not trucking, that is currently experiencing AI-driven job losses. Hollywood's use of AI for stunts, dialogue changes, and reanimating deceased actors could save billions but at the cost of jobs. Similarly, authors fear replacement by AI, which, while not yet capable of creating original content, is improving rapidly. The need for UBI is further emphasized by the replacement of jobs in various sectors, including customer service and inventory management, by AI. Despite a relatively low unemployment rate, the looming threat of AI-induced job displacement suggests a need for UBI or alternatives like a federal jobs guarantee. However, UBI is seen as a more inclusive option, especially for those whose skills may not align with government-created jobs.

Opinions

Andrew Yang's foresight on AI's job displacement is proving accurate, with AI beginning to replace human roles in various industries.
Critics of UBI argue that people might misuse the funds, but evidence suggests that recipients typically spend UBI on necessities.
The creative industry, including Hollywood and authors, is particularly vulnerable to AI advancements, leading to job insecurity.
AI's inability to create original content or be copyrighted is noted, but its role in assisting creative processes is growing.
The inevitability of AI's role in the job market necessitates discussions about UBI or similar social safety nets.
A federal jobs guarantee is proposed as an alternative to UBI, though it may not be as inclusive or feasible for all displaced workers.
The potential for AI to cause widespread job displacement across multiple sectors, including customer service and programming, is a concern that UBI could mitigate.
The transition to an AI-driven economy, referred to as the Fourth Industrial Revolution, will likely create new jobs, but UBI is suggested as a means to ease this transition.

Andrew Yang Warned Us About AI But No One Listened

And now, jobs are slowly being replaced

In 2019, Andrew Yang, former presidential candidate for the Democratic party, said artificial intelligence would disrupt jobs in the U.S.

He argued AI will kill the truck driving industry by replacing it with automated drivers. He proposed that as President, he would create a universal basic income, or UBI. It would provide all Americans with $1,000 a month after turning 18.

The money could be used however Americans wanted.

Critics immediately argued against it, saying people would spend the money on alcohol, gambling, and other vices.

However, most studies show that when Americans are provided with a UBI, they spend it on necessities like rent, groceries, or bills.

Most Americans provided with a UBI have spent it responsibly.

In a time where 45% of Americans can’t cover a $1,000 emergency expense, receiving any sort of UBI from the government would drastically increase the quality of life of Americans, especially those who will eventually be laid off as a result of AI.

According to Yang’s campaign website, 40 million people live under the poverty line. If UBI was passed, it would lift those people out of poverty.

Good-paying jobs are being lost every year as technology wipes out and displaces a lot of industries.

Yang’s campaign website also said 1/3 of American workers will lose their jobs by 2030, and only UBI can prevent those workers from entering poverty.

However, something to note is what Yang got wrong about UBI.

It’s not the truck-driving industry that is currently being wiped out.

It’s the creative industry.

Hollywood went on strike to protect their jobs

Hollywood aims to use AI to make stunt work safer. They also want to change an actor’s dialogue without doing reshoots, and “reanimate” dead actors.

This will save the Hollywood industry billions of dollars.

All of this technology exists already. Deepfakes have become incredibly advanced, text-to-speech software sounds almost (emphasis on almost) human-like, and VFX continues to evolve daily.

However, all of this comes at the cost of jobs.

Stunt doubles will not be needed as much as they are now, meaning film studios will either cut their hours or cut their wages.

Actors won’t have to come back for reshoots because AI can just recreate the scene and change it instead, meaning the actor’s salary will get cut as well.

VFX artists are impressed with how AI makes their jobs easier by adding in elements that were previously done by hand, as seen in the movie Elemental. But with the dawn of AI-created videos, it’s only a matter of time before their jobs are cut as well.

Authors are also terrified of losing their jobs

After the release of ChatGPT and the AIs that followed, writers, authors, and artists went up in arms about its usage.

They immediately pointed out how AIs use their books and images as training data to further create content.

Creatives are terrified they will be replaced.

However, as good as AI is at writing (I’m being sarcastic), there are several things it cannot do.

It can’t be copyrighted. It can’t create original content on its own. It needs humans to tell it what to do to create content.

However, the creative industry should still be concerned.

No matter what, AI will only get better.

And without UBI, the creative industry will slowly be replaced.

No, AI will not create original content anytime soon.

However, authors are already using AI-generated images to create character art instead of hiring an artist. And the best part for authors (at the expense of the artist), is they can do this for free (unless you use Midjourney, which is a paid subscription).

Other jobs being replaced by AI only reinforce the need for UBI

Even though Tesla has yet to release a successful version of its self-driving software, ride-share companies like Uber and Lyft are still moving toward driverless cars to replace their drivers in the future.

Adding insult to injury, companies are also replacing customer service representatives with AI.

You think you’re talking to a human when you’re asking about Apple’s warranty on your nonfunctioning iPhone. In reality, you’re talking to an AI.

Inventory managers are also being replaced, with AI ordering products as shelves go low or out of stock. Bank tellers are being replaced with AI, which can open accounts and conduct cash transactions now.

As is, Walmart has moved quickly toward self-checkout (with hiccups) and has cut the number of employees it needs.

Whether we like it or not, as jobs get slowly replaced, the need for UBI will only increase.

Do we need it now, though? And aren’t there alternatives?

That’s the real question.

As of November 2023, the unemployment rate is 3.7%.

It’s hard to justify the need for UBI when the unemployment rate is so low. After all, saying we need to give money to people who are going to lose their jobs to AI in the future isn’t a convincing argument to give to Congress.

Even if you sent this proposal to Congress to prevent the economy from crashing as a result of the AI Industrial Revolution, it still wouldn’t pass when there are alternatives.

One proposal is that of a federal jobs guarantee.

Why give people a paycheck when you can give them a job instead?

Instead of having an unemployment office, we would have an employment office. People would show up and get to pick from a list of federal government jobs available.

The government would be the one creating these jobs, and these jobs will be available for anyone who wants one.

The caveat?

Not everyone can apply for a job. What about those truck drivers who have no skills outside of driving? What if there's no job for them under this federal job guarantee?

Granted, there will be bus drivers needed, as an example, but that pays nowhere near what Walmart pays for truck drivers right now. Meaning they will have to take a tremendous pay cut.

What about single mothers who were hoping to get paid maternity leave (in the few places the U.S. offers it) and ended up getting laid off just before they could apply for it?

What about older folks who were working a job that required minimal physical exertion? Would jobs like that be available under a federal job guarantee?

Probably not.

The federal job guarantee is an alternative, or can even be a supplement to UBI. However, a UBI is a safer alternative because it is inclusive to everyone.

We need to prepare for the inevitable

While the creative industry is fighting against the usage of AI in for-profit works, Congress needs to prepare for the inevitable.

AI is here to stay.

It is not a fad.

Society thought the internet was a fad, and look where we are now.

UBI needs to be taken seriously.

All it takes is one corporation to implement AI throughout more of its company for the others to follow.

As is, major corporations are already ridding themselves of skilled jobs.

Yes, skilled jobs.

Google is working on AI that can write and edit code. In the future, it is a possibility they will no longer need to hire as many programmers and coders.

Similar to how Walmart only hires one person to keep watch over 6–8 self-checkout counters, Google will do the same with software engineers.

What will these people do now that their job is no longer sought after by the world’s biggest search engine?

We need UBI. And we need it soon.

Even if new jobs will be created as AI starts the Fourth Industrial Revolution, we need UBI to ease the transition as we move toward a new era for humanity.

Without it, it’s safe to assume our unemployment offices will be packed with people waiting to fill out an application.

And who will be helping those folks fill it out?

AI.