Kerala Politics

An Introduction To Kerala Politics- Leaders, Parties and Alliances, Election 2021 Special

An overview of the politics of the state of Kerala and the power tussle between UDF and LDF over the years. With the strengthening of NDA and the coming up with new forces we see that the power dynamics are changing this election for 2021.

Kerala is a tiny state with a long coastal area in South India. Compared to the rest of mainland India politics is quite different and unique. On April 6th 2021, Kerala will witness its Legislative Assembly Elections. This is an election special article made for everyone who doesn’t know much about Kerala’s politics or its elections. In December, we had discussed in detail Kerala’s local self-governing body elections but didn’t cover anything much on the statewide picture. Please do read that also in order to get a better understanding of the topic.

Kerala just as said is a tiny state but despite that, it has a population of 35 Million, which is the population of the Tokyo metro. (This is not at all a small number.) It has 14 administrative districts and 140 assembly constituencies. The number of constituencies varies across each district and doesn’t remain constant. Broadly we can divide the state into three regions- North, South and Central Kerala. These are synonymous with Malabar, Cochin and Travancore respectively.

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw energetic local body elections which show that democracy and people’s power is indeed strong. Just like that, we can see similar or more energy and enthusiasm this time.

Political Parties and Demographics

Demographics is nothing but social interaction between people depending upon their standing in society. Despite us claiming to be a much progressive society without any demographic effect on politics, technically we know that those factors really affect the politics at large and there is typically no denial of it. The majority of Keralites despite how literate or how educated we may seem are inside religious conservative and they really make up a big chunk of voters. That is especially seen in the older generations and how they view different issues. Youth despite largely being part of the same system we can see that difference in approach and is slightly more progressive than the previous generation.

Kerala is a state with a large religious minority population (45%) and thus it is impossible for any political party to neglect them from the equation to attain power. We will discuss more this as the article proceeds.

Kerala’s prominent parties and alliances

For years Kerala has seen a close bipolar contest between two prominent political alliances led by two national parties. Instead of parties fighting with each other what we can see is the close fight between the fronts. Fronts are nothing but a group of many parties. This time we can see the rise of a third front as well as a lot of apolitical fronts in the race which will make the contest more and more interesting. For three decades we can see two alliances taking power interchangeably after every five years. Let us discuss the fronts and parties in detail.

Left Democratic Front (LDF)

The most important front in Kerala and the current alliance in power. The alliance is led by CPI-M. The smaller parties include CPI, NCP, LJD, JDS, KCM etc. It has won 91 seats of 140 last time which is a whopping majority in 2016. The number rose to 93 after bypolls in 2019 and is here in 2021 to strongly defend its current position. LDF overall stands for left values like social and economic equality, socialism, secularism, welfarism, pro-labour, pro-poor, pro-farmer, left-liberalism etc. Both foothold and cadre can be considered the strongest in the state. Currently, LDF is led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

Receives support from govt officials, labour unions, employee unions, poor, rural areas. Demographically youth and age-old support the party alike. Receives massive support from lower-caste Hindus, lower-caste Muslims, atheists and all those who believe in communist ideals.

Strengths

1. Strong Cadre
2. Strongman face of CM
3. Currently in power
4. Crisis management
5. The momentum of victory in local elections
6. Massive strength in rural areas

Weakness

1. Allegations against the govt
2. Slight anti-incumbency
3. Heavy backlash in Lok-Sabha elections
4. Centralisation of power in the hands of CM

Communist Party of India Marxist (CPI-M)

The largest and strongest party in both LDF and Kerala. Has uniform support and presence across Kerala, unlike other parties whose foothold is restricted only in certain areas. Largely stands for Marxist ideas but tries to deviate from the path taken by Stalin and Lenin and tries to portray communism from the Indian view. Has consistently performed well in many assembly elections including the local body elections. A party that is dying across India but still has really good support in Kerala is quite ironic. Extremely strong in North and South Kerala. Its leaders include Kodiyeri Balakrishnan, Dr Thomas Isaac, C Vijayaraghavan, KK Shailaja, V S Achuthanandan, etc. The party has decided not to distribute tickets to those who have contested twice.

Communist Party of India (CPI)

The second-largest party in LDF. Has more or less the same spread as CPI-M but relatively smaller in comparison. It believes in almost the same ideas as CPI-M but has gone with Leninist ideals. Currently, the leader is Kanam Rajendran. It is one of the sole parties which has decided not to give tickets to leaders who have contested at least thrice. That is a big boost to Youth leaders.

Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)

Much like a small party, quite strong in the central areas of Kerala. NCP is a national party based in Maharastra. Kerala is one of the important states where it is present. Although its part of LDF in Kerala it's part of UPA at the centre. NCP at present is in turmoil after Mani C Kappan had left the party and also after the demise of Thomas Chandy. The party is led by A K Shasheendran.

Kerala Congress Mani (KCM)

Joined in 2020 after it was thrown out from the second alliance. Really strong in Kottayam and Idukki district. The party received good results in the local elections which pushed up the numbers of LDF. Probably it can be a swing factor this election. The leader of the party is Jose K Mani, son of Late K M Mani.

Others

KC B led by KB Ganesh Kumar, LJD, Congress S all are smaller factions but are present in LDF. They don’t play a big role in state politics.

United Democratic Front (UDF)

The principal opposition alliance at present. The alliance faced a massive setback in 2016. In 2019 it won 19 out of 20 seats to Lok Sabha but lost the momentum it had in Local elections. It stands for Centrists ideas but much of them keep switching Left and Right. Has a lot of support from all three religions, especially popular among the Christians and Upper Caste Hindus. It stands for social democracy, democracy, neoliberalism, pro-poor, etc.

The main parties include the INC, IUML, KC, RSP, CMP etc. It had won barely 55 seats in 2016. The leader of the alliance is the Leader of Opposition- Ramesh Chennithala.

Strengths

1. Lok- Sabha election momentum
2. Rahul Gandhi’s campaigns
3. Anti-incumbency against the Govt
4. Has support across the spectrum
5. Benevolent leaders like Oomen Chandy

Weakness

1. Lack of cadre
2. High command culture
3. Infighting and turmoils
4. Factionalism
5. KCM leaving the alliance

Indian National Congress (INC)

The largest party in UDF and the second largest in the state. A prominent national party in the Centre. Despite losing across the nation, the party is active in Kerala despite the High Command culture. Lack of a strong cadre has always put the party on backfoot. Has uniform presence across the state but strong in Central Kerala and isolated urban areas. Led by Ramesh Chennithala and Oomen Chandy. Other popular leaders- M M Hussain, Mulappaly Ramachandran, Shashi Tharoor, K Sudhakaran etc.

Indian Union Muslim League (IUML)

Junior partner but has almost the same number of seats as INC in the assembly. Very strong Malapuram and Kozhikode districts. Predominantly seen as pro-Muslim and pro-Wealthy elite Muslims. The leader of the party is K Kunhajalikutty who left his parliament seat to contest in elections.

Kerala Congress (Jacob and Joseph)

These are two different parties. KC Jacob is strong in Ernakulam while KC Joseph is strong in Idukki and Kottayam. Joseph faction was formed after the Mani faction was thrown out of UDF. Joseph is a benevolent leader in the party but had to face severe backlash in local elections.

Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP)

Left LDF in 2014 and became part of UDF. It is a party with strong left ideals. It has won the Kollam Lok Sabha seat two times. N K Premachandran is the senior leader of the party and a senior MP.

National Democratic Alliance (NDA)

The elections are largely bipolar in the state between UDF and LDF but we can see the rise of NDA subsequently in the few years especially after rising of Narendra Modi. Led by the strong Bharatiya Janatha Party, it will spice up the elections and will play the spoiler for both UDF and LDF in several seats. Getting strength in Urban areas. Has support among conservative Hindus and some Christians. Despite being a strong party at the centre and ruling party of India, it hasn't been able to milk those successes here. This can be matched with the situation of CPI-M. Its sole MLA is O Rajagopal who is the most senior party leader.

Constituent parties are weaker than BJP but they can’t be ignored. They are BDJS, AIADMK, Shiv Sena, Hindumaha Sabha etc.

Strength

1. The ruling party at the centre
2. Cadre strength
3. RSS shakas
4. Steady growth in recent years

Weakness

1. Nationalistic-Hindutva face not getting attraction
2. Lack of public support or foothold
3. Factionalism and infighting
4. An anti-secular image in Kerala

Bharathiya Janatha Party

Popular for its muscular nationalism and Hindutva is the largest party in the world. It has good support amongst the conservative Hindu voters, pro-business, pro-capitalist voters. BJP is trying to get support using anti-LDF and anti-UDF rhetoric. It can only get some growth by eating into the vote bank of both the other fronts so it has plans to weaken UDF and eat into its Right Wing vote bank especially Christians. BJP is known for its Anti-Muslim rhetorics and it will use to get closer to Christians. Popular faces of BJP include President K Surendran, Union Minister V Muraleedharan, Suresh Gopi, ESreedharan, Kummanam Rajashekharan etc.

Bharath Dharma Jana Sena(BDJS)

Has significant support among the Ezhavas and SCs. It has failed to make any gain as Ezhavas are generally the vote bank of LDF. Needs to work more with BJP. The party is looked after by Tushar Vellapaly and his father Vellapaly Nadeshan.

Other parties are not so relevant at the state level.

Other political forces

Kerala Janapaksham Secular

Started and run by P C George, once who was a tall leader in the UDF. He had left before the 2016 elections and won as an independent from Poonjar. Later he joined the NDA only to leave in 2019. In the 2020 elections, his son won the district panchayat seat in Poonjar. It literally shows how strong he is as an individual politician in Poonjar.

Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI)

It is the political outfit of the Popular Front of India (PFI) which is active in Kerala and Karnataka. The party is known for taking an extreme fundamentalist side of Islam. Even the majority of Muslim parties have come out against what they stand for. SDPI is strong in isolated parts of the state but irrelevant to win any assembly seat.

NCK

Started by NCP rebel Mani C Kapan after he was denied the Pala Seat by the ruling LDF. He believes he has the ground support and followers which will help him get re-elected by floating a new party. In 2019 he had defeated KCM in their own turf of Pala through an LDF ticket. Now the tables have turned and it's unfair for Mani C Kappan to be denied his seat despite given that he had worked so hard to win in 2019 bypolls.

Apolitical entities

With political entities dominating the field for many years now. There is massive anger against them. This phenomenon is truly worldwide and not just in Kerala. Apolitical entities can be NGOs, Citizen groups, Corporates, Societies etc. At present, there are two main apolitical entities that have become parties that will contest polls.

Twenty 20

Quite an interesting name for a party. Despite the name suggesting something to do with 2020, the party was formed in 2015 as the extended arm of the KiTex Industrial group. The party is based in Kizhakambalam village in Ernakulam. This party did wonders in two consecutive LSG elections expanding beyond their bastion. Now they wish to contest the state elections.

Since the Kizhakamabalam and adjoining areas fall in the Kunnathunadu constituency, that will be the main centre of their fight. Despite all odds, the party will contest in all 14 seats of Ernakulam trying for a social experiment.

This party has always been under criticism for its corporatisation and flawed revenue model by the traditional parties. But, to counter that they offer comprehensive developmental and welfare programmes with an apolitical touch.

V4Kochi

Under the umbrella of the V4 People’s party, it is a party based in Kochi City. It wishes to challenge traditional power politics they believe has been the central reason for lack of development and slow progress. They have emerged as a strong alternate force in the 2020 LSG elections where the ruling UDF had lost power in the city municipal elections. The main reason for the UDF loss was the vote cutting by V4Kochi. In order to execute their ambitions beyond the city, they have decided to contest across the state now. Unlike T20, they are yet to put up a model or be a credible alternative.

Number Games

Arithmetic is always essential to understand elections and decide the victor. We will understand the political arithmetic used by parties and analysts. It is always said that those who win the capital district decide the state winners. Every vote counts because the swing margin is much smaller than what we believe in every election. Even a 2–3% difference is enough to decide the winners and losers. As always those who perform very well in central and southern Kerala will have the edge.

2016 State Assembly Tally

In 2016, ie the previous elections we can witness that LDF had a massive jump in the tally. This was marked by a big juggernaut of protests against the then UDF government. LDF clean-swept many districts and made big gains in regions which they didn’t have much hold before. This was also the first election where BJP opened its account in the state by getting its first MLA. BJP also saw a massive surge in the voting percentage and even now it is keeping increasing in its favour.

2019 Lok Sabha Elections Tally

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, we can see the tables turn within three years. Despite that, we can say that it may be because of Lok Sabha and how Congress is the bigger player in the centre. We have always seen a trend from 2009 how UDF has always fared better than LDF. This is a clear example, how citizens can differentiate between Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections.

LDF was just able to topple Alappuzha while all the other 19 seats were won with a massive majority. Kerala was only among two states which stood solid with UPA during the massive NDA 2019 wave.

2021 Prospectus

As per the majority of pre-poll surveys done by various agencies in collaborations with the news channels, we can see all of them giving the same inference. They predict that LDF is poised to retain the power with 80+ seats. Despite a loss in a few seats and a dip in vote share, we can see that there is no perceived anti-incumbency against the government. We cannot surely say that these predictions will be right as they have gone wrong in the past. Also, there are two more weeks left for campaigning and for undecided voters to make up their minds. So, it is too early for us to claim that these are the final numbers.

Also, read and listen to a podcast

What are the main reasons why LDF is poised to retain their seats? What are the main issues? How should you vote in these elections? How is opposition able to put itself as a credible alternative?

These are the really important question which we will look into in detail in the next article of the Election 2021 series. So don’t miss that article at any cost.

References

Wikipedia, Manorama, Mathrubhumi, The New Indian Express

Suggest Reading

Indian Elections

Indian Political Lessons

I have started a Telegram Channel which will contain the record of all my articles. Follow my personal blog for behind the scenes and informative content.