America’s pullout from Afghanistan may enable not only the Taliban, but also China

Summary

The United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan is leading to a resurgence of the Taliban and an unexpected diplomatic engagement by China, which is seeking to establish influence in the region while potentially leveraging the Taliban to quell Uighur dissent.

Abstract

As U.S. forces exit Afghanistan, the power vacuum is being filled not only by the Taliban but also by China, which is courting the group despite its historical oppression and human rights abuses. China's engagement with the Taliban, including offering financial aid, is seen as a strategic move to prevent the group from supporting the Uighur Muslims' resistance against Chinese repression. This development raises concerns about the future of Afghan governance, regional stability, and the potential for China to gain dominance in the area. The situation underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics at play and the possible consequences of the U.S. military's departure from a nation that has historically resisted foreign control.

Opinions

The author views China's diplomatic overtures to the Taliban as a concerning development, contrasting it with the treatment of American envoys.
There is skepticism about President Xi's vision of Western decline and Eastern ascendancy, particularly in the context of the potential erosion of freedom and democracy under increased Chinese influence.
The author expresses doubt that the Taliban will honor any agreements with China, especially regarding the Uighur conflict, given the group's history of oppression and human rights violations.
The article suggests that the U.S. shares some responsibility for the current situation due to its past support of Islamic groups against the Soviet-backed Afghan government.
There is a sense of regret and concern that America's longest war may result in a return to power for the Taliban and a shift towards Chinese regional dominance, which could have been avoided.

America’s pullout from Afghanistan may enable not only the Taliban, but also China

Afghanistan (via Pixabay)

As the United States military is pulling out of Afghanistan, not only is the Taliban surging, the Chinese government is welcoming representatives of what just twenty years ago was recognized as one of the world’s most oppressive regimes, and a leading abuser of women, to diplomatic talks in China.

The contrast between how China treats American envoys and Taliban envoys could not be more stark. This article from The New York Times needs to be a wake-up call.

President Xi has publicly stated in a widely reported speech that he believes the West is in decline and the East is in ascendancy. He may have a point, considering the collapse of Western culture in Europe and serious signs of major problems in America. I am not at all sure many Western people who value freedom and democracy will want to live in the world that may well await us in a half-century, particularly if China becomes the world’s dominant power, as its leaders seek to be.

While the future of China is far from certain, I am very sure that nobody who values freedom wants to live in an Afghanistan ruled by the Taliban. We’ve seen what that looks like already, with girls forbidden from attending school and treated like slaves, and the harshest possible punishments applied for the smallest offenses against the Taliban’s values.

So why is China offering major financial aid to Afghanistan and seeking to buddy up with people who are among the worst of the worst when it comes to the most basic principles of human rights?

China’s human rights record is also bad, but much of the explanation is a likely Faustian bargain with the Taliban to keep out of China’s Uighur conflict. China is harshly repressing its own indigenous Uighur Muslim minority and has good reason to fear that an Islamic fundamentalist state on its border would export jihad into China. The Taliban seems willing to make a deal with China to sell out its coreligionists in return for Chinese financial assistance if and when Taliban military might takes over Afghanistan.

Is this really what we want?

I’m well aware that Afghanistan has historically been ungovernable. I know the history of how the United States used Islam to destabilize and eventually destroy the Soviet-backed Afghan government, and we share at least some blame for the creation of the Taliban by enabling its predecessors. There are no easy solutions. The British couldn’t run the country, the Soviet Union couldn’t run the country, and the American efforts to establish a functioning nation appear to be on the verge of failing.

Perhaps the day will come when the Chinese deeply regret their role in enabling the Taliban on their borders. It seems unlikely that the Taliban leaders can be trusted to keep their word not to support the Uighur resistance, given the Chinese government’s severe persecution of their co-religionists across the border.

But it’s sad to see America’s longest war end in a way that runs a very real risk, not only of the people we fought returning to power twenty years after 9/11, but of regional dominance by China.

That did not need to happen.