“I am obliged to report that, at the present moment, the Russian Empire is run by lunatics.” Maurice Paleologue, French ambassador 1917

All empires have their utopia, and Crimea is definitely Russia’s version. The liberation of Crimea will bury Russia’s dreams of empire (part 2)

Liberating Crimea is a necessity for Ukraine to rebuild their economy. This must be a non-negotiable condition for a peace deal with Russia. Losing control over Crimea will end Putin’s foolish dreams of empire

Liberating Crimea is of strategic importance. The liberation of the peninsual will decide the outcome of this war. In part one, I had a look at the geography and the military history of Crimea. In part two, I will focus on the Russian imperial myth connected to Crimea.

Catherine the Great once annexed the peninsula and she helped to create one of the strongest imperial myths of the Russian empire. I kid you not, but Russians seriously linked themselves to the Byzantine Empire and ancient Greece via the Crimean peninsula.

The liberation of Crimea will have devastating socio-economic and geo-political consequences for Putin’s grip on power

History can be our guide to understand why Crimea is so awfully important for Russia imperialism. Putin considers himself to be linked to Catherine the Great. Therefore, Russia makes the faulty assumption that it’s the “Third Rome.” This all sure is very absurd, and Vlad Vexler managed to summarise this absurdity in one single sentence:

Putin’s Russia provides us with trumpian levels of revisionist historical jiu jitsu. Vlad Vexler

In 2014, Putin sent soldiers into Ukraine and annexed it with almost no casualties

This fetish over Crimea isn’t Putin’s own invention, though. Putin repeated an event that has already happened 250 years earlier. This event had a great influence on shaping Russian imperialism. Crimea was then almost considered a kind of “inner territory” or an archetypical landscape. In 1774, Crimea was detached from the Ottoman empire. Nine years later, in 1783, Catherine the Great annexed Crimea.

Catherine boasted about the annexation which had happened “without a single shot being fired.” Putin was using almost the same words in 2014. The Russian poets glorified this event beyond all measures. They used many lofty words to idolize this imperialistic landgrab.

“Which God, which angel crowned us with bloodless laurel, gave us trophies without battle? Gavrilo Dirshavin

Putin put it like that in 2014: “This is strange to hear. I can’t recall a single case in history without a single shot being fired.” Yeah, yeah, of course he can’t this guy is really a shameless liar. The story of Catherine, Crimea, and Russia is truly a theater of the absurd.

It all started with ancient Greece and Catherine the Great

If you ever wondered why, so many cities in Ukraine’s South are having the suffix - pol. Well, as we said, Catherine the Great tried to link Crimea to ancient Greece. She was founding cities in Southern Ukraine with this suffix as it comes from the Greek word “polis”. She founded: Sevastopol, Melitopol, Mariupol, Cherson, and Odessa.

Also, these last two were named after previous Greek settlements in the region. The ancient Greeks had several trading posts in the region and settlements on the northern shores of the Black Sea. Catherine really went full all in on the idea to make Russia “more European than Europe.”

Russians seriously think that Crimea is their ancient Greece

These Russian imperialist thinkers also believe that Russia is the heir of ancient Greek culture. Catherine the Great made Crimea into her “Greek project.” She wanted to desperately prove that Russia was somehow directly linked to Constantinople, Byzantium, and Athens. In his famous book: “By fables alone”

Andreii Zorin gave a detailed account of how this was supposed to work. Vlad Vexler provides us with a cartoonish summary. Russian historians are very creative in making up their own history. Zorin describes these mental gymnastics as follows:

First, we need a Kievan prince and some Byzantine’s emperor’s daughter. By marrying this prince with the princess

Secondly, Russia is the single heir of the Byzantine church.Christian Byzantium historically succeeds ancient Greece.

Thirdly, historical succession “must” entail continuity of religious tradition, therefore Russia’s faith comes from Greece. Therefore, Russia is the only indisputably legitimate heir to classical Greek culture. (see video Vlad Vexler “Russia’s most amazingly absurd imperial myth")

So, Russia may not have conquered Greece, but it believes that annexing Crimea with its Greek momunments and its relics rekindled Russia’s link to Greek civilization. So let me get this straight for you. Russia annexed a rocky peninsula. Obviously, this made them think that they are Homer? Sadly, Putin’s men never stopped believing it even today.

“All Empire’s have their utopias, and Crimea is definitely the one of Russia” Vlad Vexler

Russians view Crimea as a sort of inner landscape that offers them a promise of paradise. But don’t worry now, it gets even more absurd and crazy. And who would qualify better for making it more crazy than Stalin and his tyrannical regime. During this time, the Muscovites and their architecture slipped south.

We saw outdoor terraces and open spaces which wouldn’t normally fit into the architecture of a country that is mostly situated in a harsh and cold climate. The Soviets consolidated this imperial myth even further. What is missing in this whole story? Well, of course, the indigenous people of Crimea. Under Stalin 200.000 Tartars were deported deep into Siberia. Crimea was a Russian paradise, an ethnically cleansed paradise.

“Demographics of Crimea is a totally artificial creation,” Ben Hodges

What Putin is doing today is utterly absurd

This entire drama around Crimea was originally built around the idea that Russia would be trying to run full speed towards the West and its culture. The myth is about fully embracing this culture and not about completely rejecting it. In a way Russia’s hate towards us is almost a compliment in reverse. They hate it so much that they cannot be like us, so they rather want to see us destroyed instead. A totally sound logic on their part again.

However, Putin attempts something completely different today. Putin uses one of the most pro-Western Russian myths in an attempt to leverage Russia away from Europe. This approach is absurd and contradicts itself. But then again, Putin doesn’t really seem to care whether he contradicts himself or not. Logic isn’t Russia’s thing, and historical consistency is also overrated.

“Putin sat on the horse of Catherine the Great, but Putin managed to sit on that horse the wrong way around” Vlad Vexler

However, Putin is still married to this myth. Putin cannot lose Crimea without experiencing a destabilization of Russia and his regime. So what will happen if Ukraine de-occupies Crimea? That would have significant consequences. So, the first option is total war, not so much with the West. Rather a total war between the different factions inside Russia with one another.

The second option is a revolution

The loss of Crimea could become the worst calamity for the Putin regime. So far, Russia only took half a totalitarian turn. Putin probably always planned to take the turn further. He would love to structure the entire Russian society around his struggle against the West. But for that, he needs to activate the population politically much further. That brings, of course, the risk with it, to turn them against him and his crazy dreams of empire.

In this second option, besides a revolution, another outcome could be that Putin will be replaced by a Prigoshinite Junta. This doesn’t sound like a good option to me. But then again. I think we have no real good options here, so we will have to be prepared for anything.

From Russia’s imperial past to the present-day conundrum.

In sum, only 6 percent of Crimea’s written history from the 9th century B.C. to date is connected to Russia. Before 2014, Crimea was under Russian control in total for only 168 years. Crimea was a part of Soviet Ukraine for longer than it was a part of Soviet Russia. That means Russia’s historical claims are nonsense. Overall, these claims don’t even matter. International law matters. Crimean citizens have voted to be part of Ukraine, and we cannot settle for anything less than that.

“The significance of Crimea has been underappreciated. It does get written off as this is historical Russian land or whatever. I had a very educated German professor saying: “Come on, Ben, Crimea has always been Russia!”

Ben then said: “Oh well, that would be quite a shock to the Crimean Tartars.”

Generally, any empire, not just the Russian one, is interested in and systematically pursues the idea of gaining power and influence

An empire also always tries to manipulate and control other nations and their markets across the globe. The US follows such a model of “imperialism light.” But we must make Russia simply stop from trying the hard version of it. Currently, Russia is trying to colonise Ukrainians as if this was indeed 1783. Russification and mass deportations included.

There are three main ways forward. The Russian empire collapses. The Putin regime collapses. Russia is breaking apart into smaller political units

Generally, no one can decide whether Russia breaks up or not. It is just one among many possibilities. Sadly, even after its hard imperialism has failed as long as Russia remains an empire, it will always try to impose control over its near abroad. That would be less destructive than it is today. But this “lighter version” of their imperialism won’t go away. Unless the Russian empire fully disintegrates.

I seriously think we can’t really know what that would look like exactly

Russia could potentially break up into a whole set of different political entities. Some of them would then be authoritarian, and some others would most likely become democratic. It’s difficult to imagine how this process could go down without considerable violence. We would likely be looking at some sort of 1917-style civil war.

Russia has a historical tendency to disintegrate when losing a major war

So, what would be the best case scenario? The least catastrophic one would be if the Russians make use of their existing federal structures and then roughly align these structures to form new states. Otherwise a civil war is very likely, with potentially devastating consequences for the entire region.

These new states would then have to rely on those structures of governance that were built up in the nineties

Those structures were, of course, asphyxiated by Putin. The Russia opposition needs to learn to understand that a pluralism of its messaging is needed. The Russian opposition abroad so far fails to play any meaningful role to help the West resolve the situation. Our active help to topple the regime will be necessary.

Putin won’t stop until someone stops him

Putin alone isn’t the problem, the entire regime is the problem and is sold on the idea of war with the West. Biden was on the right track last year in Poland when he had this Freudian slip of the tongue.

“My god, this man cannot stay in power” Joe Biden

Summary and Conclusion

To this very day Crimea remains at the core of the Russian imperial myth. Nothing much has changed ever since Catherine the Great first took Crimea under Russian control in 1783. For Putin, Crimea has an importance and is of major significance for the stability of his regime. Crimea is the decisive terrain of this war. It’s decisive because otherwise, Ukraine will never be able to rebuild its economy, its decisive because otherwise Russia will never be able to let go off this poisonous dream of empire.

In part three, I will try to shed some light at this “Crimean Endgame” in more detail

This part will also take us back to the very beginning of Russian authoritarianism. Going there will show why losing control over Crimea could end Putin’s rule. The Ukrainian counteroffensive will begin in the next 30 to 60 days. This offensive will decide the outcome of this war, for good or ill.

We need to put human rights, a belief in multilateralism and respect for international law back at the heart of foreign policy. Emily Thornberry

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Sources:

Part 1