A Tale Of Two Futures

Emergencies, new normals, and avoiding dystopia

States of emergency

For the first time in American history, all fifty states and most territories are under an emergency declaration. In battling a pandemic, fighting an invisible enemy, framing and language recall wartime comparisons to Pearl Harbor or September 11th. A little over 2,400 Americans perished in Pearl Harbor, nearly 3,000 killed on 9/11, and currently, Covid19 has claimed over 110,000 lives.

As states emerge from shelter in place orders, resuming “normal” functions, new guidelines and procedures will be on full display. While remaining a patchwork, as legislatures enact laws, caution is necessary to avoid crossing into draconian territory.

Not to be confused with Canadian rapper Drake, or Malfoy of Harry Potter fame, Draco was the first recorded legislator (Seventh Century B.C) of Athens, Greece. He replaced the prevailing system of oral law and blood feud by a written code to be enforced only by a court of law. The term Draconian, named for the aforementioned legislator, has come to mean, excessively harsh or severe application of the law.

Relinquishing rights

Rights weakened or removed by governments or corporations during crisis or emergency are rarely (if ever) returned, rather a new normal is established. In implementing laws and procedures meant to safeguard the public, politicians will look towards precedent in addressing Covid19.

Terror attacks of September 11th, 2001 marshalled an era of cascading private and public policy declarations including The Patriot Act, Department of Homeland Security, Borders and Customs Enforcement as well as Transportation Safety Administration. Laws which inevitably impacted personal freedoms and civil liberties, shaping a new set of beliefs and behavior.

Many have likely forgotten the name Richard Calvin Reid (The Shoe Bomber), an Englishman responsible for a botched bombing on December 22, 2001 when he attempted to detonate his shoe on an American Airlines flight. Despite failing, travelers have since been required to remove shoes while passing through security. Only recently have officials reconsidered and in some cases discontinuing this practice.

Travel, concerts, sporting events, family or religious gatherings will likely require completely new precautions and guidelines, some of which will prove or become ineffective and unnecessary. Much can be tolerated, even forgiven, in an emergency. During a raging fire, no one questions the actions of firefighters, able, even encouraged to break through windows, doors or roofs. In an effort to resume normalcy we will be asked and happily comply with new or unusual requests, after all, we need to put out the fire. Will the efficacy of such measures be reconsidered and reevaluated regularly or remain in place well after the fire is extinguished?

Sports fans, movie and concert goers, as well as travelers now immune to metal detectors, pat downs and security dogs will likely be asked for more sacrifices. Some countries have implemented temperature scans, contact tracing and QR codes on cell phones indicating a person is safe (green) or unsafe (red) to enter a public space or event. Third parties comprising airlines, hotels, restaurants or entertainment venues will be compelled to ask for and collect personal metrics and data prior to providing products or services under the pretense of safety and public health. Absent real solutions, prevention, testing or treatment, this is our foreseeable future.

New normals, same outcomes

Methods to combat viral spread have been contested, some protested, yet one thing remains clear, The United States was wholly unprepared for a pandemic, lacking in hospital capacity, testing, or coordination within public and private institutions. While infections and deaths have recently declined, many speculate a second wave will follow loosening restrictions.

Should cases increase, rather than speculating why, evidence and data need to be examined. Did cases increase due to lax social distancing, decreased use of face masks, increased public transit, or capacity in restaurants, shops and places of employment? Lack or insufficient metrics have hampered our response thus far, should that trend continue, we can expect exceedingly draconian measures by public officials moving forward.

Reopening, kind of

Much talk has centered around opening schools in the fall, resuming full operations in offices or factories, and ensuring travel, events, or conferences can be conducted safely. Experts largely agree, in-person schooling is critical to mental and social well being of students. In terms of economic health, mitigating unemployment, aiding those unable to work from home, restaurants, office buildings, and factories also need to reopen. Travel, including international destinations, will largely resume with precautions in place. New York State may provide an important case study, to all these areas, in moving forward.

While some have proposed schools open with smaller class sizes, more educators, and precautions, others lean to a contact free online model, disregarding both social and mental health of students. A similar line has been echoed regarding healthcare. Why hire more health workers and encourage home visits, when telemedicine can become the norm? Do people really need face to face, in person interaction when they’re impressionable, vulnerable, or sick? I would think so. Naomi Klein addresses this very issue, describing it as a high tech coronavirus dystopia.

To be clear, we do have a choice, including one which provides a path for safety, increased employment in rewarding fields, empowering and lifting more people into a prosperous future. Decreasing class sizes and increasing the number of teachers, employing more health care workers for in person home visits, undergoing large scale infrastructure upgrades, building roads, bridges, better and safer mass transit, all of which can be done now. Or we can completely shift to electronic monitoring, of all kind, stifle the growth of young minds, further isolate the elderly, and keep job creation and economic revival stagnant. We have that option as well.

Prevention as Cure

Although fire alarms are loud, demanding attention, they tend to have diminishing returns, the more you hear one, the less effective it becomes. This isn’t a condemnation of safety precautions, including face masks, social distancing, small gatherings, or other reasonable, logical, proven methods to curb the spread. Rather, caution on what should or should not be allowed to continue well after the fire is out. Predictions abound as to what may likely come, most of which includes an over reliance on robots, Artificial Intelligence, and minimal investments in human capital.

Perhaps it’s time to deal with human or environmental threats, not by a series of alarms and states of emergency, but prevention through strategy and investment. Academics and policy makers generally agree, pandemics, environmental, and man-made disasters are likely to not only continue, but intensify. Improvements in public health, supply chain, and infrastructure would be a good start. Specifically a robust pandemic response including fast track testing and treatment, all of which are either absent or lack any level of coordination. In doing so, we must also consider social and mental well-being of students, patients, elderly and employees in a range of fields. Maintaining an emergency mindset, ignoring new and pertinent data, constant constraints on the public, invasions of personal health metrics, will only become excessively harsh, Draconian indeed.

P.S If you enjoyed this article, check out “Germs, Genes, and Greens” below.