Making It To 2030
We have seven years to lay the foundations for survival
I've been dancing around this for some time now. The nonlinear complexity of our reality looks to more and more people like an avalanche coming down on us from the future. It will hit us wherever we may be.
Our species has some strange instinctive beliefs. One of those irrational beliefs is that not looking at a threat prevents it from happening. It won't hit you if you don't look at that truck or avalanche.
We know that doesn't work personally, but it has much more power on the group's mind. This is a case of Fast Mind/Slow Mind. Without getting crossways with Daniel Kahneman, the announcement of a threat produces an initial fast reaction determining the validity of that threat based partially on the timing of when it may occur.
This is the root of our dominant refusal to address the rapidly escalating climate disaster. We have been warned about this steadily for thirty years or longer but with everything in the future.
The 2030 date is arbitrary but represents what many knowledgeable people feel is now a critical point on our path. When does the momentum of the climate catastrophe begin to accelerate collapse recognizable by most of the population?
The social pattern of seeing this as non-threatening has become ingrained as a distant future event. This also is an excellent example of the difficulty of statistical analysis in Slow Thinking or any human thinking. We don't get things with two or more variables that increase geometrically. So, for many people, the risk is misunderstood.
Add to this a significant minority influenced by the ruling financial oligarchy that refuses to accept any limits on their levels of exploitation. This is so politicized in the American Empire that presenting slow-thinking analysis and objective factors is not even considered.
This is how people think with decades of poor information processing. Most people who recognize our reality are left hoping that some extensive enough climate or combined disaster will switch on slow, analytical thinking and, somehow, correct the impulsive no-danger response.
That is almost impossible, with those people's political leaders rewarding them for refusing to see the danger. This reinforces the 'don't look at the thing that is about to kill you' mentality.
And that makes this so difficult to discuss realistically. We are divided in many ways, but a growing division is between those with hope and those who see the end for what it is and struggle with what to do.
It's hard to go on when there is no hope, although people manage to do it by putting what is happening out of their minds. Here is the problem: the hope we can have is to reduce the extent of the disaster that cannot be eliminated. That is our only option, but we are not even doing that.
Ironically, those who insist that climate catastrophe is all made up seem to have no hope. If anything, they are angrier and desperate to destroy what little hope remains.
This is not the end of the world. The planet will continue adjusting to the new conditions regardless of how many life forms are under terminal stress. But it will end human civilization as we know it in the American Empire.
The reality is that we are beginning to pass through an evolutionary bottleneck. Estimates of the maximum size of our population when stability returns will be approximately three billion.
We can do better than that, but the number will be based on long-term sustainability, not on politics or religion. As climate-related disasters expand, production and supply chain disruptions will cause hardship and chaos sporadically.
These won't be perceived as 'end of the world' disasters but as mundane disasters, we are less able to handle. Many people are already realizing this now. What can be done and maintained will become more evident, and we will learn to live with it as we are now.
It helps to understand history well on how mundane or brutal these things can be. As a note, the Fall of Rome was only the Western Empire around 456, and the Eastern Empire (Constantinople) remained until 1453 but survived under the name Ottoman Empire until 1919.
Finding solace in that is historically possible but dependent on the culture involved, but our youngest adults (Gen Z born from 1997 to 2011) are surprisingly optimistic. Youth is a time of optimism. A Gallup-Walton Family Foundation State of Gen Z in America shows both the optimism and problems spreading in our cultures. Four selected Key Findings are illustrative:
- Less than half (47%) of Gen Z Americans are thriving in their lives — among the lowest across all generations in the U.S. today and at a much lower rate than millennials at the same age.
- Seventy-six percent of Gen Z members agree they have a great future ahead of them, yet only 44% report feeling prepared for their future.
- Members of Gen Z who have an adult encouraging them to pursue their goals and dreams are more than twice as likely as those without to strongly agree they have a great future ahead (51% versus 23%) and will reach their goals (49% versus 23%).
- Gen Z's most frequently cited hope for the future is to "make enough money to live comfortably" (69%). In comparison, 64% say financial resources are a barrier to achieving their future goals and aspirations.
The survey used no questions on the single most significant limit on our future. The limitations on achieving their goals were traditional in an era of something other than conventional. However, the most problematic findings can be seen as the result of polycrisis triggered by the climate disaster.
Gen Z struggles with mental and emotional wellbeing more than the previous generation at the same age.
Engaged but Seeking Purpose — Gen Z members lack opportunities to do what they do best in school.
While the population generally sees Gen Z as a potentially 'lost generation,' that is not how they see themselves. And they are the ones who will face the massive change required to survive in the 22nd century.
As a parent and educator, it is challenging to encourage and motivate students as needed when the future is different from what their hopes will provide. The most challenging part of this difficulty is preparing them for that future.
The failure of the educational system, an old problem in America, is understood by Gen Z as a failure to prepare them, specifically at a practical level, for the jobs they will need to survive. Only 44% feel ready for what they know they will face, which is focused heavily on adult education and community colleges.
Perhaps that is the best area to begin the transformation, although the American political collapse has made education, in reality, a primary target of the fascist reaction. Fascism is focused on exploitation and self-destruction.
Can we stop that and turn our high school and introductory college education into practical analysis needed to hold a sustainable civilization together? We need something as a solution to make us sustainable. But no solution, even under discussion now, will do this.
Going into the full range of reasons for our current and future failure based on minimal response is beyond my point in this short essay. You should read the following article that summarizes the author's position. I am interested in any valid criticisms.
How do we educate and train our population to deal with something we officially ignore? No, not completely ignore, but miss by minimizing.
The optimism that the Gallup-Walton reveals, combined with the lack of well-being and mental health problems, results from knowing there may be no future. Yet, we must act each day as if there is a future. The mental stress of that at a young age is hard to imagine.
If we were forcing all political leaders to acknowledge reality and mount a planetwide effort to anticipate and reduce the dangers, we would be amazed at what could be done.
It is evident that waiting for a serious enough disaster to turn the planet around and begin the move away from capitalism toward human survival will be a long wait. A terminally long wait.
Mike Meyer ~ Honolulu ~ October 4, 2023
This was previously published at rlandok.substack.com.
