Documents Reveal Exxon Scientists Accurately Predicted Global Warming 50 Years Ago

They knew exactly what was coming — with nobody being held accountable, how do we stop the death spiral?

Approximately zero people are surprised by the recent revelations that Exxon scientists knew carbon emissions and their entire business model were horrific and destroying the prospect for future life on the planet. One environmental researcher even called the accuracy of their decades-old projections “breathtaking.”

They knew exactly what impact they were having, and they did nothing. Even worse, once public awareness started to rise and slightly affect their profitability, they set out on a misinformation campaign to discredit the scientific conclusions of their researchers and others.

We know all of this.

And again, nobody is surprised. The worst part is no one within the company will be held accountable.

The maximum penalty for these gargantuan corporations is a fine that gets a few headlines because it seems large until it is compared to their profits. It’s the equivalent of a drug ring destroying a community dealing crystal meth, getting busted, and then being ordered to give back 0.5% of the money they made and promise not to do it again.

When there are no real penalties, there’s no incentive to stop the behavior.

But momentum is building, and all signs point to 2023 being a pivotal year in climate litigation. It can’t come soon enough.

Unfortunately, as with everything these days, most generally proposed solutions focus too much on the individual, not the system. Along with the shift in global warming awareness and action in the general public, there must be an awakening in the perception of our economic structures and a fundamental rethinking of business, consumption, GDP, the role of government, shareholder value maximization, eternal growth, and more.

We need to finally stop the disinformation campaigns, put aside the economic fantasies, and focus on real sustainability.

The company knew exactly what was coming…rather than do the ethical, moral, and rational thing…they initiated a misinformation campaign to discredit the science.

The public has known for years that Exxon and Big Oil companies were fully aware of the impact their industry had on the planet. That is not news at all. The part that recently got the Guardian, CNN, NPR, and others writing on the subject was a new analysis and report on Exxon’s climate projections dating back to the 1970s.

CNN reported that there had never been a comprehensive analysis of Exxon’s climate modeling data. Co-author of the report, Geoffrey Supran, a research fellow at Harvard University, said it was “the first-ever systematic assessment of the fossil fuel industry’s climate projections.”

The researchers analyzed over 100 documents from 1977 to 2014, found the ones related to climate modeling, and then compared them to historical observations.

And Exxon’s projections were pretty damn good, with CNN reporting that “63% to 83% of the projections were accurate in predicting subsequent global warming.”

The research shows Exxon knew how much C02 would lead to dangerous warming, that temperatures on the planet would increase by 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade, and that the effects would be clearly felt around the year 2000.

The company knew exactly what was coming.

But rather than do the ethical, moral, and rational thing, like sound the alarm and try to shift their business model, they initiated a misinformation campaign to discredit the science.

“Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the “body of fact” that exists in the mind of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy.”

The parallel to the Big Tobacco lawsuits of the second half of the 20th century is obvious and stunning. Back then, the lawyers knew they didn’t have to refute or debunk the science showing the connection between smoking and lung cancer; they only had to get people to question it.

That led to the infamous memo from Brown & Williamson, then a subsidiary of British American Tobacco, which stated, “Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the “body of fact” that exists in the mind of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy.”

Doubt is the product. Big Oil has taken a page from that playbook and spent the last four decades sowing doubt and controversy. A 2017 Harvard study examined 190 public and private communications from Exxon and found that the internal documents admitted to human-caused climate change while the public-facing statements expressed doubt.

They knew, and they lied to mislead the public. And there have been little to no consequences, so they continue.

And they’ve been all too effective, making America one of the world leaders in global warming denial, having right-wing ‘intellectuals’ claiming the whole thing is a neo-Marxist conspiracy, and now climate skepticism is a freaking prerequisite for office in the Republican Party.

Reporting does show that 2023 might be the year where climate litigation makes some headway, with groundbreaking lawsuits taking place across the globe.

…without really addressing the massive economic elephant in the room that underpins everything we do, the system will gaslight the public back into complacency and shapeshift into another destructive form of fake innovation.

A lot of the litigation action is happening in America, but everyone knows these companies have nearly unlimited resources to appeal and stretch out the process. So the trials take time and have been in the works for years.

But this year will see the trial of a case brought by children and young people against the state of Montana, which argues the state, by supporting fossil fuels, is failing to protect their rights to a healthy and clean environment.

The Guardian reported that one of the senior litigating attornies for Our Children’s Trust, which is the organization bringing the case, said, “The court will be deciding the constitutionality of an energy policy that promotes fossil fuels, as well as a state law that allows agencies to ignore the impacts of climate change in their decision-making.” The lawyer also said the trial will be watched around the world and affect all climate litigation moving forward.

Beyond the US, similar climate-related cases are being heard in Canada, Mexico, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, Europe, and elsewhere. Most are brought by young people and climate organizations, but in many places, indigenous communities and island states are leading the charge.

The UN will also vote this year on a resolution relating to climate change and human rights, with the Guardian stating, “If passed, the international court of justice will have to advise on what obligations states have under international law to protect the rights of present and future generations against the negative impacts of climate change.”

Again, none of this can come soon enough, as every year the IPCC releases another doomsday report on the state of the environment that goes largely ignored by the general public.

Seeing the momentum build brings a glimmer of hope.

Ideally, positive results in these court cases will keep the ball rolling and lead to a larger discussion about human rights and the economic fantasyland we live in.

Because without really addressing the massive economic elephant in the room that underpins everything we do, the system will gaslight the public back into complacency and shapeshift into another destructive form of fake innovation.

We need to snap out of the ‘making money means bringing value’ paradigm; companies make billions actively destroying the planet.

We need to have deeper first-principle conversations around economics and the profit motive in general. Is it okay that Exxon is making $58 billion in profits, lobbying its way into paying less in taxes, and spending millions to manipulate the public? Should we allow that as a society, and should the private ownership and exploitation of those types of natural resources even continue?

And why are our governments still giving out $500,000,000,000 a year in subsidies to fossil fuel companies?

We need to snap out of the ‘making money means bringing value’ paradigm; companies make billions actively destroying the planet.

The irrationality of eternal exponential growth on a limited planet needs to also be thoughtfully debated. McDonald’s, Bed Bath & Beyond, Chevron, Popeye’s, Coke, Gap, Goldman Sachs, and every other multi-billion dollar corporation cannot and will not grow forever, and that’s okay.

Along with that, GDP as the principal metric for success really needs to be rethought. ‘Things we measure in the economy’ getting bigger should not be the only marker we use to evaluate our nations in 20-freaking-23.

And as we waste 30% of the food we grow and companies literally burn millions of dollars worth of products they produce, there has to be a real discussion about consumption habits, consumerism, single-use everything, and planned obsolescence.

Overfishing and eating 42 oz steaks for breakfast, lunch, and dinner is also an area we need to do better in.

The list goes on and on and on.

And that’s one of the reasons it is so hard to talk about global warming and real sustainability. We’ve gotten so irrationally far off track that even attempting to truly address the most pressing issues bearing down on us seems impossible.

But we have to start thinking and talking about the topic on a deeper level. Producing eight billion Teslas isn’t going to solve our problems.

Luckily, as mentioned, there is a lot of litigation in the works. Things are shifting…just a little too slowly.

But there are reasonable plans and ideas out there like the Just Transition for fossil fuel workers, the Carbon Border Adjustment to create market incentives for lowering fossil fuel consumption, and also the Carbon Dividend to redistribute the profits.

It’s all gaining momentum.

But these companies will stop at nothing to muddy the waters and slow the progress. They know exactly what is coming. They’ve known for decades, and there are hundreds of billions of dollars at stake.

As citizens, we have to stay diligent, keep the momentum going, and make sure there’s a livable planet for the generations that follow.