7 Ways Democrats Could Be Singing a Sweet Song in the Senate

All eyes are on the two Georgia Senate runoff races—and some high-profile Dems will have boots on the ground

The next few weeks in Georgia will be wild and crazy. The state’s two Senate seats will be decided in a special runoff election on January 5th. So get ready Georgia — here comes the tsunami. You’ll be overwhelmed by speeches, rallies, debates, social media posts, billboards, lawn signs, hats, and bumper stickers. All accompanied by the thunderous roar of wall-to-wall political TV commercials. As much as one billion dollars will be spent in Georgia between now and the end of the year.

Why Senate control matters

Trump was soundly defeated in the electoral college — and lost by more than five million votes in the national popular vote. And he lost the State of Georgia to Biden. The House remains under Democratic control. The Senate is (possibly) up for grabs. If both of Georgia’s Senate runoff seats go to the Dems, that chamber will be locked in a 50–50 standoff. With Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote, Dems gain effective control.

The Money Thing

We live in the era of Big Money Politics. Money is the key to getting out the messages — and the vote. And here’s why money is needed now in the upcoming senate runoffs. Without a Biden (or Trump) on the ticket, history shows us that a large number of Democratic voters will stay home. The state’s track record for Dem turnout at special runoff elections is poor. The tendency will be for too many good people to think: Why bother to vote? I don’t know much about the candidates. I’ll just have a beer and watch what happens. But big money will buy the attention-getting ads, hats, flags, and — very important — it will fund the battalions of people who go door to door. They will be asking their fellow citizens to please, please, please vote.

High-profile boots on the ground

We also live in an era of Big Political Personalities. Campaign messages from star-studded politicos are amplified by the traditional media, cable news, social media, and millions of websites and blogs. So which Big Political Personalities will be making high-visibility appearances in Georgia? Who will be in the state — boots on the ground — and generating support for the two Democratic candidates? Consider the following seven factors that will be in play during the coming weeks.

1) The Stacey Factor

Stacey Abrams is the political dynamo who delivered Georgia to Biden. She did it by turning out the Black vote. But, as mentioned above, the state’s track record for Democratic turnout at runoff elections is poor. Oh yeah, so what? Count on Abrams to stage a 24/7 full-throated effort — she’s determined to make the magic happen again.

2) The Barack & Michelle Factor

The former POTUS and FLOTUS are amazingly popular. Barack’s current approval rating stands at 58% while Trump’s approval rating languishes at 38%. Michelle tops them both with a 60% approval rating. The Obamas are powerful and eloquent speakers. They will (no doubt) hopscotch Georgia with high spirits and high energy. They’ll make speeches, host fundraisers, do media appearances, and write op-eds in local Georgia papers. They could be in the state long enough to take out library cards.

3) The Joe & Kamala Factor

Biden and Harris will be needed in D.C.—they do have an incoming administration to plan. But expect them to visit Georgia several times. They’ll attend fundraisers and make speeches. They’ll personally award their 100,000-kilowatt endorsements to Democratic candidates Jon Ossoff and Rev. Raphael Warnock. After all, if the Trump/McConnell Gridlock gets busted up, Joe & Kamala can get some actual work done. (Cue: sound of billionaires gnashing their teeth.)

4) The James Carville Factor

James was born in Georgia and on the political trail is known as the “Ragin Cajun.” He worked on Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 campaign and authored the campaign’s (internal) battle cry, “It’s the economy, stupid!” Carville has worked on dozens of Dem campaigns since that win. During the coming weeks he has pledged to be all over Georgia like a cheap suit. (I’m not exactly sure what that phrase means but it should probably strike deep fear in Mitch McConnell’s heart).

5) The Early Vote Factor

Georgians will be allowed to vote in advance of January 5th runoffs. Like November 3rd, this early voting could be a key factor for the Democrats battling against an imbedded low turnout. Without a doubt, every political celeb listed above will be shouting from the rooftops: “Hey, folks—mail-in ballots and early voting are a piece of cake!”

6) The Deflated Trump Factor

Donald Trump is carrying the heavy burden of a failed narcissist-in-chief. He’s angry. He feels sorry for himself. He has stopped paying attention to the pandemic and no longer attends the Covid task-force briefings. Nor is he interested in national security. He hasn’t sat down for a Presidential Daily Brief since October 1st — and, of course, he never reads the PDB. And here’s something truly dispiriting. It’s reported he is now spending even more hours every day watching cable news. (Message to POTUS: we voters wish you would understand it’s your job to make news, not watch it.) Will Trump have the interest or energy to travel multiple times to Georgia over the next few weeks? Not likely. After all, his default response to any suggestion that he should leave the golf course is: What’s in it for me? (it’s the mantra of his long, multiple-failure career).

7) The Big Bucks Factor

Entrenched special interests will reliably donate to the two GOP Senate runoff races. This is in the belief that Republican control of the Senate is key during Democratic administrations. And—for special-interest dudes—writing big checks usually proves to be in the best interest of their beloved special interest. But the Dems have major supporters with deep pockets, too. They include the likes of Mike Bloomberg, Tom Steyer, Andrew Yang, Sergey Brin, Jack Dorsey (and, maybe — wouldn’t it be nice? — Bill Gates). Democratic fundraising, and their get-out-the-vote efforts, will receive big boosts from the six political celebs listed 1 through 4 above. And how’s the lineup looking for the Repubs?

Q: Which Big Political Personalities will parade through the Peach State on behalf of the GOP candidates?

A: A few B-team staffers. Some swamp dwellers like Devin Nunes, Matt Gaetz, and Jim Jordon. Donald Jr., maybe. And Moscow Mitch, accompanied by his wife (the billionaire heir of a Chinese shipping magnate). Note: Dem ads are likely to point out that, as senate majority leader, Mitch is the guy who’s been holding up your next $1200 stimulus check. He — and he alone — is the reason Covid stimulus legislation hasn’t moved forward. (Oh, and did I mention? If the Dems take both seats, Mitch is bumped out of his leadership job.)

All in all, your humble author hopes the Dems will end up banking a bigger bundle for the runoffs. Because, to say it again, in elections money talks.

In conclusion—and in spite of all the foregoing—it’s going to be a tough, nasty, noisy, vitriolic slog until January 5th.

But I’ll be humming Georgia, Georgia … all along the way.

Take a moment for the sheer pleasure of hearing Ray Charles perform, “Georgia On My Mind”