Seven College Football Playoff Contenders that Control Their Destiny

A new top-12 and future playoff rankings if teams win out

A wild weekend of college football means we’re essentially starting from scratch. Four of the top nine teams lost, with Georgia, Notre Dame, and TCU all getting blown out. We were a couple plays away from making it a clean sweep of the top three, but Alabama lived to fight another day.

So what do the rankings look like after all the big losses? More importantly, what’s it all mean for the playoff picture? We’ll run through a new top 12, then take a look at the future playoff standings if teams keep winning. Do Miami and Wisconsin control their own fate now? Does two-loss Auburn too? And do any of the other two-loss teams have a real shot?

The surprising answers might be yes, yes, and yes… let’s take a look.

Current Top 12 Rankings

1. Alabama (previous rank: 2) 2. Oklahoma (6) 3. Clemson (4)

It’s a pretty clear top three, though you can quibble about the order. Most will put Alabama on top with their reputation and undefeated record, and that’s fine, but Bama can’t match the wins resume of the Sooners or Tigers yet.

Oklahoma has wins over Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and TCU, two of them on the road. Clemson’s adds one marquee win against Auburn to a pile of road victories at North Carolina State, Virginia Tech, and Louisville to round out a strong schedule. Alabama’s biggest wins came over the past two weeks, but they still have Auburn and Georgia to come.

4. Georgia (2) 5. Miami (8) 6. Auburn (NR)

Georgia and Miami both have their biggest win against Notre Dame. Georgia did it on the road; Miami was certainly a lot more convincing. But Georgia comes out ahead across the rest of the schedule, even with this week’s loss at Auburn. They’ve dominated a much tougher schedule, while Miami has squeaked by multiple times. Don’t be a prisoner to the zero at the end of Miami’s record or recency bias. Georgia is still really good.

And they still have a better resume than Auburn. The two have a similar wins resume with one marquee win and a bunch of good ones. Both have a road loss against a top opponent. Auburn just has a second loss, too. That outweighs the head-to-head victory, for now.

7. Notre Dame (3) 8. TCU (5)

There’s no reason for Notre Dame and TCU to plummet. Both lost tough road games against top ten opponents, and that doesn’t undo a season’s worth of great work. These are still very good teams with strong resumes — but it’s a problem that they’ve each lost their two biggest games.

9. Central Florida (10) 10. Wisconsin (12)

There are four unbeaten teams remaining, but you’d sure think it’s three the way everyone’s talking. Neither Central Florida nor Wisconsin has lost, but neither has beaten a definite top-25 team either.

Wisconsin’s best wins are against Iowa and Northwestern. What good is 10–0 if seven of the wins are against teams that don’t even make a bowl? Central Florida has wins against Memphis, Navy, and SMU, and they’ve dominated their competition in all but one game. Their resume is just as good. Of course Wisconsin can still add wins against Michigan and Ohio State. There’s no one on UCF’s schedule that can convince the the committee of their place.

11. Oklahoma State (NR) 12. USC (NR)

We’ve ranked 12 every other time, so 12 it is. These two stay just ahead of teams like Penn State, Ohio State, North Carolina State, Iowa State, and Mississippi State. Guess it was a bad year to be a State school.

Future Playoff Rankings If They Win Out

1. Alabama

Duh.

2. Oklahoma 3. Clemson 4. Miami

Would Oklahoma rank ahead of the ACC champion? It won’t matter outside of the jersey color unless Alabama loses. Obviously both Clemson and Miami cannot win out, so this is only three playoff spots so far.

5. Georgia 6. Wisconsin

This Georgia loss wasn’t so terrible. If they win out, they’ll either beat an undefeated Alabama team or the Auburn squad they just lost to. Either way, 12–1 Georgia with that resume is a lock for the playoffs.

Wisconsin may only rank sixth, but that’s good enough. At least two of the teams above them have to lose, so the Badgers control their destiny now. They were by far the biggest winners this weekend. The committee was never leaving a 13–0 big five conference champion out anyway.

That leaves four clear playoff favorites at this point: Wisconsin, Oklahoma, the Clemson-Miami winner, and an Alabama-Georgia winner. If those teams keep winning, this plays out pretty easy. If even one of them takes another blemish along the way, things start to get fun.

7. One-loss Alabama (to Georgia) 8. Auburn 9. One-loss Alabama (to Auburn)

So what happens if neither Georgia nor Alabama wins out? That likely means Auburn has caused more chaos by beating one or both of them. It also means two-loss Auburn probably controls its destiny. They’re the clear king of the two-loss teams if it comes to that, an SEC champion with wins against Alabama and twice against Georgia.

Alabama may be close to a playoff lock, even with a loss. Losing to Georgia in the SEC title game would leave them 12–1 and a clear pick if any other team stumbles. A loss to Auburn is more interesting, because that would leave the Tide out of the SEC title game. If Auburn beats Georgia there, we’d have two-loss Auburn, two-loss Georgia, and one-loss Alabama vying for a spot. Georgia would have lost twice to Auburn so they’re out, but wouldn’t the committee take two-loss Auburn as an SEC champion and head-to-head victor over one-loss Alabama? Bama would’ve lost its biggest game of the year, and Auburn would’ve won three monster games in a month.

10. Ohio State 11. TCU 12. One-loss Miami (to Clemson)

Holy cow, the Buckeyes are alive. In fact, they’re in remarkably good shape considering the beatdown they just took at Iowa a week ago. Ohio State needs to root for a couple other red teams: Wisconsin and Alabama. The Buckeyes need the marquee win they’d get against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, and they need Bama to knock any other SEC contenders out of the way. If both of those things happen, Ohio State controls its fate. Their losses were earlier, and they’d have late momentum and a final exclamation point against the Badgers. The Bucks are in this.

TCU needs more help, but they’re not dead either. They can redeem their weekend loss to Oklahoma by beating them in the Big XII Championship, but they’ll need some shenanigans from the Big Ten or ACC teams to have a shot.

What if Miami goes 12–0 before falling to Clemson in the ACC title game? That sends Clemson to the playoff, and at least one SEC team would join them. Miami would have no shot against Oklahoma or Wisconsin, but even against TCU or Ohio State, they might come up short. What would the committee value more — one fewer loss or a conference championship and final marquee win? History says it’s the latter.

13. Notre Dame 14. USC 15. Central Florida

It’s probably not going to happen. If you’re pulling for one of these teams to somehow still make it into the playoff, here’s what you need to root for:

• Alabama crushes Auburn and Georgia, leaving one clear SEC playoff team
• Clemson loses at South Carolina but dominates Miami in the ACC title game, perhaps eliminating both of them
• Oklahoma loses to West Virginia, leaving a pair of two-loss Big XII teams in the title game
• Ohio State loses to Michigan but still destroys Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, eliminating both of them

If all of that happens, Notre Dame gets the nod ahead of PAC 12 champ USC on a dominant head-to-head victory. Central Florida doesn’t have a shot. Is the committee really taking the Knights when they can throw the Irish or Trojans into a national TV game? It’s not happening. Poor Central Florida. They’ll have to settle for a New Year’s bowl game nobody watches.

Our official prediction with two regular season weeks to go?

Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson… and Ohio State.

Dios mio.

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