2020 NBA Awards Season

10 High-Profile NBA Rookies that Disappointed This Season

R.J. Barrett, Darius Garland, De’Andre Hunter, Jarrett Culver, and other high draft picks came up short in their rookie season, but what did we learn about their long-term NBA outlooks?

HOW MANY ROOKIES MADE THEIR NBA DEBUT THIS SEASON? There are 60 draft picks each summer, though not all of them play. G-League call-ups, European “rookies” like 29-year-old Nicolo Melli, and undrafted players on two-way contracts also get spare minutes. De’Andre Hunter, Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy, Matt Mooney, and Tariq Owens played in the NCAA Championship Game last April before making their NBA debut. We saw minutes from 7-foot-5 cult favorite Tacko Fall and some dude named Charlie Brown. Would you believe 115 men made their NBA debut this season? And that’s without the final 18 to 20 games!

Only 18 rookies played 1000 minutes, and just 14 averaged double-digit points. It’s hard to make a winning impact as an NBA rookie. The learning curve is steep, and it takes most players a few years to figure it out, if they ever do. That’s why we grade rookies on a curve, focusing a bit less on win shares and VORP and winning metrics. For most rookies not named Ja or Zion, just getting playing time and compiling some stats is significant.

Still, even on a curve, many rookies disappointed. Soon I’ll name All-Rookie teams. Though seven of the players below comprise half of the 2019 lottery, none were among my top-10 rookies or anywhere near Rookie of the Year contention. Many are still just 19 or 20, and a poor start doesn’t condemn them as busts. Some even had nice rookie years, all things considered.

Here’s what I thought about these guys heading into the 2019 NBA Draft. Let’s take a look at 10 high-profile rookies that disappointed, and when you’re done, be sure to check out my top 10 rookies and my First and Second All-Rookie teams…

HIGH LOTTERY PICKS WITH WORRYING STARTS

F De’Andre Hunter, Atlanta

No rookie played more than De’Andre Hunter, and there may not be another rookie I’m more worried about long-term. Hunter wasn’t the worst rookie — but he shouldn’t have been. Atlanta traded three picks to move up for Hunter and expected him to come in and contribute positively right away at age 22, particularly on defense. He was supposed to be NBA-ready.

Hunter did play heavy minutes, starting for 32 minutes a game, but he was bad on both ends. Most rookies struggle in team defense, but Hunter was supposed to be an exception. He wasn’t, and he didn’t create defensive events either, averaging under one stock (steals + blocks) per game.

Hunter looks extremely dependent on offense, isn’t scoring efficiently like at Virginia, and doesn’t look anything like a defensive stopper. I ranked Hunter top-5 on my draft board last summer, but this was a really rough start.

G Darius Garland, Cleveland

Garland was Cleveland’s second straight lead-guard selection in the top eight picks. He averaged 12 points and 4 assists and hit 88% of his free throws, all fine. But Garland was brutal defensively, turned the ball over a ton, and almost never got to the line, finishing with under 50% true shooting.

His passing improved as the season went along, up from 3 to 5apg over the final months, and Garland is still young and barely played any college ball. It’s far too soon for any verdict, but this wasn’t the start the Cavs hoped for.

G Jarrett Culver, Minnesota

Culver is another older rookie at age 21 and, like Hunter, was expected to come in and contribute right away. Instead, he was awful out of the gates. The defense had its moments, but Culver couldn’t shoot to save his life at under 42% true shooting through December and brutal offense.

The three-pointer improved to a passable 35% in 2020 and Culver showed flashes of improvement as the year went along. He made an impact defensively and looked better in Minnesota’s late-year lineups, including a leap to 120 offensive rating in March.

The overall profile remains worrying. Culver had a few athletic highlight dunks after loading up, but his first step doesn’t create enough separation in the NBA, and his shot looks broken at under 50% from the line and on twos. He’s always been a late blossomer, so let’s see how he improves in year two.

DON’T BE FOOLED BY VOLUME NUMBERS

G R.J. Barrett, New York

I stupidly picked R.J. Barrett as my preseason Rookie of the Year, even after writing the equivalent of a 5000-word hit piece on his draft stock. I didn’t think Barrett would be good but didn’t expect much from any other rookies either (once Zion got hurt), and I figured Barrett would get a lot of playing time and compile big numbers.

His numbers ended up being mostly fine. Barrett averaged 14 points, 5 rebounds, and 2-and-a-half assists a game. That last number is especially disappointing. I think Barrett’s path to value is through his passing and creation. He needs the ball in his hands, finding shots for himself and creating them for others, and I expected Barrett to be a triple-double threat, but he never got close. He actually had only two games all season with more than five assists, and New York didn’t let the offense run through him enough.

There were some good signs. Barrett’s 35% free-throw rate is pretty strong, much like it was at Duke. He’s doing a good job getting to the line on drives, though his 61% shooting once he gets there remains poor and was all over the map month-to-month. Barrett’s 2.2 turnovers per game are also lower than expected, though that’s helped by him handling less of course.

The overall profile is a bit rough. The defensive profile and numbers weren’t good, and the most worrying thing is how poor Barrett was as a shooter and how inefficient his scoring was. He made 32% of his threes but, much more worrying, only 43% of his twos, including just 57% at the rim. That’s Barrett’s bread and butter. If he can’t score at the basket, teams won’t need to foul him and will sag off, removing driving and passing lanes and reducing him to a jump shooter. That’s not going to work. Barrett has a long ways to go.

F Eric Paschall, Golden State

Paschall doesn’t make my All-Rookie teams, and honestly he wasn’t close. He did lead the Warriors in points this season, thanks to about 20 different variables that all bounced his directions, scoring 14ppg on quality efficiency thanks to a strong free-throw rate. And honestly, after the Warriors had made five straight Finals last summer, who could have possibly believed Eric Paschall would lead the 2019–20 Warriors in points?

Paschall started hot putting up 18/6 in November but fell off hard after that and lost a lot of playing time, even on the league’s worst team. He looks well on his way to being the next Kyle Kuzma, an overrated player none of us would even know much about if not for volume scoring on a national team.

F Rui Hachimura, Washington

Like Paschall, Hachimura may well make an All-Rookie team on volume, but I’m not particularly excited about either one of them. Hachimura scored 13ppg on inefficient volume but was terrible defensively like pretty much everyone else in Washington.

The truth is we just didn’t learn that much about Hachimura this year. We already knew he could score the ball given the opportunity, and we didn’t learn much out. Hachimura missed a third of the season and just looks like a guy who compiled numbers on a bad team because, hey, someone has to.

G Jordan Poole, Golden State

Poole might have been the single worst regular rotation player in the entire NBA. He was horrid on both ends, including an 89 offensive rating and — not a typo — just 53 ortg in December. Poole hit 28% of his threes and under 40% of his twos, not great considering he’s supposed to be a shooter.

Some reason for hope? Poole leapt to 14 points and 4 assists a game over the final 13 games, including 58% true shooting. I wonder if he might even play a bigger role next season than the Warriors other more ballyhooed rookie.

GOOD ENOUGH OUTLOOK, JUST MAYBE NOT YET

F Kevin Porter Jr., Cleveland

KPJ was a tough draft prospect to evaluate last summer. He has a terrific handle and hang dribble but a really wonky shot and looked uncoachable at times and completely disconnected on defense. That makes this year’s Cavs not exactly a great situation with their coaching and defensive issues, but given all that, Porter was a pleasant surprise.

The numbers and overall profile are mostly just average, but that’s a good thing! Porter barely snuck into the first round and played big minutes for an awful team. Average production as a rookie is pretty good, and Porter’s defense in particular was much better than expected. The shooting was around average, better than expected given his wonky shot profile, and there are too many turnovers. None of that is a surprise.

What was a surprise was just how good Porter looked at times in flashes, much like at USC. There’s some real wing creator equity there. Cavs fans might well be better off thinking of KPJ as their lottery pick, with Garland as the late-round flier.

C Jaxson Hayes, New Orleans

Hayes is the one guy on this list with a real gripe about being left off my All-Rookie teams. After all, Hayes is second among all rookies in win shares behind only one Grizzlies player (but not the one you think!) and sixth among rookies in VORP. He added real value to the Pelicans, though those metrics routinely over-inflate big men value, particularly rim runners like Jaxson.

The numbers are all pretty sparkling. Hayes finished with 68% true shooting, thanks especially to an absurdly high 74% free-throw rate, and he made 74% of his shots at the rim. That matches what Hayes did in college, where he was an efficiency monster. The defense was a mixed bag. It wasn’t good but it wasn’t abysmal like many might have expected from a twiggy rookie, though the block rate was not particularly exciting.

It was all much better than I expected Hayes to be already as he got a lot of early minutes with Zion Williamson and Derrick Favors injured. But for all those pretty metrics, it’s hard to ignore how bad New Orleans was defensively with Hayes taking those minutes. And if he’s so good, then why did he not even rank top-20 among rookies in minutes? His own team essentially catapulted him out of the rotation once Zion returned and the team was playing serious games that mattered in February and March.

That doesn’t condemn Hayes long-term, by any means. This was already more than expected for a guy I expected to spend the year in the G-League. But it’s enough evidence to leave him off the All-Rookie teams and wait until we see that body fill out and how the defense measures up with a more stable roster around him in future seasons.

F Cam Reddish, Atlanta

Of everyone in this piece, I may actually be most optimistic about Cam Reddish going forward. I honestly think he might already be the second-most unmovable Hawk, ahead of John Collins and Clint Capela, ahead of his more highly-regarded lottery teammate, De’Andre Hunter.

It certainly didn’t start out that way. Reddish was about as bad at the end of 2019 as he was at the start, when he struggled almost all year as a freshman at Duke. Through the end of December with the Hawks, Reddish was scoring just 8ppg on a miserable 32% from the field, sporting an ugly 42% true shooting with an 81 offensive rating and 113 defensive rating. Horrid numbers all around, and no real surprise to anyone that watched him at Duke.

But, unlike a number of the players in this piece, Reddish showed clear steady improvement every single month of the season. After January 1, Reddish improved to over 13ppg and saw his three pointer leap to almost 40%, his true shooting up over 57%. After the All-Star Break, those numbers climbed even higher to 16.5ppg and 62% true shooting with a 111 offensive rating.

The Hawks drafted De’Andre Hunter to be a much needed 3-and-D wing to complement Trae Young, but it’s Reddish who looks like the better option. He showed real stopper ability on defense down the stretch, harnessing all that length and athleticism, starting to fulfill the potential that once made him a possible #1 pick. His shooting improved all year, his true shooting up every single month, and he began to do more than just take open shots near season’s end too, handling a bit and finally looking like a guy that’s starting to “get it” after looking like anything but all last year.

This looks like the Cam Reddish we’ve been waiting for, one that would’ve gone top-5 in last summer’s draft if we really believed was in there. The season-long numbers still come up short of All-Rookie, but Reddish had a real season to build on. He’s just one more reminder that there’s more than meets the eye on counting numbers, especially on young players. ■

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