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Abstract

rve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20190619.pdf</a></figcaption></figure><p id="4bc7">同一時間,<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20190619a.htm">聯儲局嘅議息聲明</a>亦都唔再講Paitent,而係變成講 “will closely monitor”。</p><blockquote id="9104"><p>the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.</p></blockquote><p id="2ef8">聯儲局內唔少人明顯相信可「預先」減息黎防止衰退出現。<a href="https://econreporter.com/2019/06/79592/%e6%b8%9b%e6%81%af%e7%9c%9f%e4%bf%82%e5%8f%af%e4%bb%a5%e9%a0%90%e9%98%b2%e8%a1%b0%e9%80%80%ef%bc%9f/">點解聯儲局會覺得減息有呢個預防作用呢</a></p><p id="a499"><a href="undefined">Byron Tsang</a> (曾國平,美國維珍尼亞理工大學經濟系副教授)之前解釋過幾個主流經濟學者認為減息可支撐經濟嘅渠道:</p><ul><li>減息可以令銀行貸款成本下降,更

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願意借錢出去, 市民更易借到資金作投資及消費</li><li>減息令會資產價格上升,市民一方面覺得財富多左,更願意洗錢</li><li>資產價格上升令企業及市民有更多抵押品借錢,更易借錢投資</li></ul> <figure id="9c76"> <div> <div> <img class="ratio" src="http://placehold.it/16x9"> <iframe class="" src="https://cdn.embedly.com/widgets/media.html?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fembed%2FkpPbd5v6rLY%3Ffeature%3Doembed&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DkpPbd5v6rLY&amp;image=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FkpPbd5v6rLY%2Fhqdefault.jpg&amp;key=a19fcc184b9711e1b4764040d3dc5c07&amp;type=text%2Fhtml&amp;schema=youtube" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="480" width="854"> </div> </div> </figure></iframe></div></div></figure><p id="1721">但今次預早減息係咪合用呢?相信仍然後聯儲局內一個好大嘅爭議,特別係利率目前其實仍係歷史低水平,係咪真係適合咁早減息呢?呢點係一個合理疑問。</p></article></body>

預測今年減息兩次嘅聯儲局官員有7個

Dot Plot更顯示仲有一位官員嘅預測係減息一次,即係17位官員有近半覺得今年內有需要減息。呢個同上次(三月)時無人預期要減息相當唔同。

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20190619.pdf

同一時間,聯儲局嘅議息聲明亦都唔再講Paitent,而係變成講 “will closely monitor”。

the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

聯儲局內唔少人明顯相信可「預先」減息黎防止衰退出現。點解聯儲局會覺得減息有呢個預防作用呢

Byron Tsang (曾國平,美國維珍尼亞理工大學經濟系副教授)之前解釋過幾個主流經濟學者認為減息可支撐經濟嘅渠道:

  • 減息可以令銀行貸款成本下降,更願意借錢出去, 市民更易借到資金作投資及消費
  • 減息令會資產價格上升,市民一方面覺得財富多左,更願意洗錢
  • 資產價格上升令企業及市民有更多抵押品借錢,更易借錢投資

但今次預早減息係咪合用呢?相信仍然後聯儲局內一個好大嘅爭議,特別係利率目前其實仍係歷史低水平,係咪真係適合咁早減息呢?呢點係一個合理疑問。

聯儲局
減息
投資
貨幣政策
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