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Abstract
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<a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">
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<h2>CME FedWatch Tool: Countdown to FOMC — CME Group</h2>
<div><h3>Use benchmark interest rate and U.S. equity index options to manage risk with more precision and flexibility. Check out…</h3></div>
<div><p>www.cmegroup.com</p></div>
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<a href="https://medium.com/%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1101/%E5%A6%82%E6%9E%9C%E7%9C%9F%E5%8A%A0%E6%81%AF%E6%BD%AE%E5%87%BA%E7%8F%BE-%E7%9C%9F%E7%9A%84%E6%98%AF%E7%8F%BE%E9%87%91%E7%82%BA%E7%8E%8B-41a194aa2247">
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<h2>如果真加息潮出現，真的是現金為王？</h2>
<div><h3>上回提到， 美國3月通脹率爆升至>8%。</h3></div>
<div><p>medium.com</p></div>
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<a href="https://medium.com/%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1101/%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1-%E7%BE%8E%E5%82%B5%E5%AD%B3%E6%81%AF%E7%8E%87%E5%80%92%E6%8E%9B-%E9%9A%AA%E8%B1%A1%E5%8D%B3%E5%B0%87%E5%86%8D%E4%BE%86-%E9%9C%80%E8%A6%81%E7%AB%8B%E5%8D%B3%E8%B3%A3%E8%82%A1%E5%97%8E-4b42ebc6699e">
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<h2>【美股】「美債孳息率倒掛」險象即將再來，需要立即賣股嗎？</h2>
<div><h3>什麼是美債孳息率倒掛？</h3></div>
<div><p>medium.com</p></div>
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<a href="https://medium.com/%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1101/%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B3%E6%9C%88%E9%80%9A%E8%84%B9%E7%88%86%E5%8D%87-%E9%AE%91%E5%A8%81%E7%88%BE%E8%83%BD%E5%8C%96%E8%A7%A3%E6%BB%AF%E8%84%B9%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F-%E7%BE%8E%E8%81%AF%E5%84%B2%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E6%88%B0%E5%8B%9D70%E5%B9%B4%E4%BB%A3%E7%9A%84%E5%8D%81%E5%B9%B4%E6%BB%AF%E8%84%B9-d5a3ed191346">
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<h2>美國3月通脹爆升，鮑威爾能化解滯脹危機？美聯儲如何戰勝70年代的十年滯脹?</h2>
<div><h3>美國剛出爐的2022年3月通脹率已達8.5%，錄得80年代以來最大升幅！(實數更可能不只8.5%，因為cost of housing無理由只升5%)，美國聯儲局的加息行動，能否有效壓抑高通脹？</h3></div>
<div><p>medium.com</p></div>
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<a href="https://medium.com/%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1101/%E9%AE%91%E5%A8%81%E7%8
# Options
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<h2>鮑威爾選擇了Volcker路徑 — Jackson Hole演說原文導讀</h2>
<div><h3>TLDR：聯儲局的工作就是看通脹和失業率 — 現在通脹太高（一個月回落不算什麼），勞工市場過緊（失業率仍低於長期平均值），客觀來說benchmark rate仍不是特別高，尚有大把空間加息上去，別發夢短期內會掉頭減息了！再像Arthur…</h3></div>
<div><p>medium.com</p></div>
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<a href="https://medium.com/%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1101/bob-shiller-%E9%80%9A%E8%84%B9%E9%80%A0%E6%88%90%E6%B6%88%E8%B2%BB%E8%80%85%E4%BF%A1%E5%BF%83%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F-%E8%87%AA%E8%AD%89%E9%A0%90%E8%A8%80%E5%BC%8F%E7%9A%84%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E8%A1%B0%E9%80%80%E6%A9%9F%E7%8E%87%E5%A4%A7-pe%E5%9B%9E%E8%90%BD%E4%BD%86cape%E4%BB%8D%E9%AB%98%E4%BC%81-bed3edaff0a">
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<h2>Bob Shiller：通脹造成消費者信心危機，自證預言式的經濟衰退機率大| PE回落但CAPE仍高企</h2>
<div><h3>去年12月初，我寫了【美股】估值太高，不宜高追一文，當中介紹了諾貝爾經濟學獎得主、耶魯大學經濟學教授Bob Shiller和他提出的CAPE(cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings…</h3></div>
<div><p>medium.com</p></div>
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<a href="https://medium.com/%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1101/%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F%E5%AD%B8-%E7%A7%91%E6%99%AE-%E9%95%B7%E6%96%87-%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E6%98%AF%E5%90%A6%E5%BF%85%E9%A0%88%E5%8A%A0%E6%81%AF-%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E6%98%AF%E5%90%A6%E5%BF%85%E9%A0%88%E8%B7%9F-%E6%B8%AF%E6%A8%93%E4%BC%B0%E5%80%BC%E5%90%88%E7%90%86-fe6e44a5ccf3">
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<h2>【經濟學．科普．長文】美國是否必須加息？香港是否必須跟？港樓估值合理？</h2>
<div><h3>為什麼美國一定要加息？</h3></div>
<div><p>medium.com</p></div>
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<a href="https://medium.com/%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1101/%E9%AB%98%E9%80%9A%E8%84%B9-%E7%94%9A%E8%87%B3%E6%BB%AF%E8%84%B9-%E6%99%82%E6%9C%9F%E7%9A%84%E8%A9%B1-%E8%A9%B2%E8%B2%B7%E4%BB%80%E9%BA%BC%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%A8-505f0b4b656e">
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<h2>高通脹(甚至滯脹)時期的話，該買什麼股票？</h2>
<div><h3>上回提到， 美國3月通脹率爆升至>8%。鮑威爾有兩條路：（1）鷹派：狠狠地加息，壓抑通脹預期(expected…</h3></div>
<div><p>medium.com</p></div>
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